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Sisi supports Sudan’s proposal for internationally mediated negotiations on the project, but could use the war to unify a divided Egypt.
At a press conference in Sudan earlier this month, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi expressed the desire of the two states to reach a binding legal agreement before the next Nile flood season on the operation of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Sisi warned Ethiopia not to try to extend control over the Nile, noting that the Horn of Africa country has unilaterally announced its intention to begin the second phase of filling the GERD basin, which could cause immense damage to the Egyptian and Sudanese interests. Sudan has previously stated that such a move would threaten its own security.
At the press conference, Sisi backed Sudan’s proposal to restart negotiations mediated by a quartet from the African Union, the European Union, the United States and the United Nations.
Such a speech would normally have made international headlines, but unfortunately for Egypt and Sudan, it mostly fell on deaf ears, reflecting Egypt’s waning regional influence.
Running out of patience
In recent decades, Egypt has viewed the flow of the Nile as a national security issue, and a former defense minister called for a military intervention in the Nile basin countries in case Egypt’s part of the river was threatened . Rather, Sisi has repeatedly used diplomatic language rather than the threat of force. His new harsher stance is not out of nowhere; Not only is Egypt running out of patience, but the reorganization of regional relations is giving it more scope to put additional pressure on Ethiopia.
Egypt has been shrinking with various regional enemies. Although not entirely of their own creation, Egypt and Qatar have risen to a better position after the recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Egypt held talks with Qatar in late February and the foreign ministers of the two countries met on the sidelines of an Arab summit earlier this month.
On the Libyan front, Egypt has had no choice but to accept the new internationally supported status quo on its western border, even though Sisi would have wanted an authoritarian regime in Tripoli. Last month, Sisi met with his Libyan counterpart, Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, in Cairo, and offered him support in post-conflict development. Egypt and Libya have also been coordinating on a number of bilateral issues, and the Egyptian embassy is expected to reopen soon.
This is not to say that Egypt is ignoring its own security concerns. Particularly concerning for Cairo is the Turkish military presence in Libya, which has greatly tipped the balance of power in favor of the revolutionaries who toppled the Gaddafi regime in 2011.
Turkey does not consider Egypt’s post-2013 coup regime legitimate; this is why Sisi “drew a line” in Libya that, if crossed by Turkish-backed forces, would spur Egyptian retaliation. In response, Egypt reportedly developed the largest land military base in the Middle East and North Africa at Sidi Barrani, some 90 km from the Libyan border.
Bilateral cooperation
And yet Egypt has also been much more receptive to Turkey’s willingness to get closer. Egypt’s state media have pointed to the benefits of such a rapprochement, while Cairo has signaled that it would be open to cooperation. Egypt could benefit from a lull in relations with Turkey, in order to focus on Ethiopia.
In addition, Egypt and Sudan have recently stepped up their bilateral cooperation in various sectors, including trade, agriculture, transportation, health, energy and mining, culminating in a defense pact in early March. It is clear that the latter is primarily aimed at Ethiopia.
Ethiopia is already in a vulnerable position, with its ongoing civil war in the Tigray region, which has created a refugee crisis mainly supported by Sudan. There have been numerous credible reports of serious human rights violations during the war, and Ethiopia faces international isolation. The EU has suspended aid to Ethiopia for its violations in Tigray, while the United States suspended aid last year over the GERD dispute.
On Thursday, US President Joe Biden sent Senator Chris Coon to Ethiopia to discuss the humanitarian crisis and human rights abuses in Tigray. The conflict with Egypt and Sudan over the dam will likely be high on Coon’s agenda.
For Egypt and Sudan, the Nile is a matter of life and death. Egypt appears to have done its regional homework and, along with Sudan, is preparing to take on Ethiopia seriously. Ethiopia and Sudan had already reached a point of high tension last month, exchanging accusations of territorial violations at a disputed border.
Regional return
It could be said that Egypt’s dire economic situation does not give it scope to launch an attack. But Egypt could use a potential war as a national mobilization tool to unify the country, divert attention from its internal problems and announce its return as one of the main regional contenders.
For decades, political scientists have debated the “water wars hypothesis,” which considers that states that share water become more prone to war in the future. While it may seem unlikely, a disastrous military confrontation should not be ruled out. Given Ethiopia’s vulnerability, coupled with Egypt and Sudan’s willingness to negotiate, one would expect a peaceful settlement soon.
By Mustafa Salama Mustafa salama
Mustafa Salama is a political analyst, consultant, and freelance writer. Salama has extensive experience and academic training in Middle Eastern affairs. Salama holds a BA and MA in political science from the American University in Cairo.
Source: Middle East Eye
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