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When scientists from the World Health Organization’s mission to investigate the origins of Covid-19 land in China as expected on Thursday at the start of their research, they are clear about what they will and will not do.
They intend to visit Wuhan, the site of the first major Covid-19 outbreak, and speak with Chinese scientists who have been studying the same problem. They will want to see if there are unexamined samples of unexplained respiratory illnesses, and they will want to examine the ways the virus could have jumped the species barrier for humans.
What the mission will not be, several of the scientists insist, is an exercise in “pointing the finger at China,” something the Trump administration and some of its allies have long demanded.
While some of the scientists will travel to China, others will be part of a broader effort that has attracted global disease experts.
Fabian Leendertz, professor of epidemiology of highly pathogenic microorganisms at Germany’s public health body, the Robert Koch Institute, and part of the team stressed the importance of being in China, of seeing sites associated with the Wuhan outbreak.
Leendertz has few illusions about how difficult it will be to trace the origin of Covid-19.
Involved in tracing the source of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa to a colony of bats in a tree, he has also worked to identify when measles may have first jumped to humans.
While some have created considerable expectations around the first visit, Leendertz cautions that his experience suggests that it may take time to get to the bottom of outbreaks, if at all.
“We will see how long it takes. There is a small chance that we can only come up with scenarios, that we will not be able to present scientific proof. For example, my group published an article last summer in Science where we discovered that it had probably been 25,000 years since measles spread from livestock to humans. Hopefully it doesn’t take that long, ”he joked.
Leendertz, like other colleagues involved in the mission, is clear, however, one thing. “It’s not about finding China guilty or saying ‘it started here, about ten feet.’ It’s about reducing risk. And the media can help by avoiding Trump-style accusations. Our work is not political.
“There will never be any risk, so this is not the time to say that it is about raising animals or people going to bat caves in search of guano. It has been a data-driven investigation and at the moment there is very limited data on the origin.
“We know the closest relative viruses in bat species. But we have yet to find the original reservoir, if there were intermediate hosts and even intermediate humans. “
And while China has suggested other places outside the country where the virus could have originated, Leendertz believes that Wuhan is still the best starting point.
“I think the philosophy of the WHO is good. Start at the point that has the strongest description of human cases, even if we don’t know that the Wuhan wet market was the point where it first spread to humans or was simply the first mega-spread event.
“From Wuhan we can go back in time to follow the evidence. [The origin] you can stay in the region. You can go to another part of China. You can even go to another country. “
While there was a conversation in the team about whether the investigation could be done remotely, when it was thought for a moment last week that China might block the visit, he is not convinced it would have been a useful strategy.
“You cannot do an investigation of any outbreak remotely,” he told The Guardian. “It is not really possible. I don’t want to give the impression that we’ll be taking swabs or finding bats, but it’s really important to look at the locations and settings, the wet market in Wuhan, the institute of virology, to see the wildlife farms, the potential interface between the virus. and humans.
“We’ve already had some productive online meetings with our Chinese counterparts, but it’s best to sit down and brainstorm to develop hypotheses.”
Leendertz’s comments about finger pointing were echoed by teammate Marion Koopmans in an interview with Chinese television channel CGTN.
“The WHO warned about the risk of emerging diseases and I don’t think any country is immune to that. So I don’t think it’s about blame. It’s about understanding and learning that for the future of our global readiness. So, I don’t think we should point the finger here. But it is important to start in Wuhan, where a large outbreak occurred. We need to have an open mind to all kinds of hypotheses. And that is what we have been asked to do. But we have to start in Wuhan, where we first learned about the situation. “
Professor John Watson, a member of the UK team and former deputy chief medical officer, echoed many of the same sentiments. “I have worked on shoots mainly in the UK,” he told The Guardian. “And while in theory you could do it remotely, being there makes a big difference. Understand how a place works and have direct contact with the people involved.
“I go into this with a completely open mind and the colleagues on the team that I have managed to speak to are the same. This is an opportunity to get to know the facts: what is available to know now and what lines of research may be fruitful in the future. I’m not sure a single trip will find all the answers, it may never be completely resolved, but it’s a start. “
However, Leendertz is clear about one thing. As the team’s international scientists conduct the research, the complex and delicate diplomacy around access will be handled by the WHO amid concerns in some circles that China could try to obstruct the work.
That job will inevitably fall to WHO chief Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who is expected to keep a close eye on the mission.
