We must quickly reduce carbon emissions

The UN released a stark climate report on Wednesday.

The 2020 Emissions Gap Report is an assessment of a wide chasm: the gap between where human-created carbon emissions are expected to be in 2030 and the cuts really needed to substantially limit global warming. The latest report underscores that this year’s coronavirus pandemic, which drastically (albeit temporarily) slowed travel and depressed economic activity, will have a “negligible” impact on reducing emissions that warm our planet.

The big picture remains clear. To avoid the worst consequences of climate change, countries must dramatically increase their commitments to reduce carbon emissions. The current climate promises, agreed to by the nations of the world in the historic Paris Agreement, are not enough. “We are approaching the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement,” said Anne Olhoff, lead author of the UN report. “Nothing has happened in terms of strengthening climate commitments.”

How much should the commitments change? To get on the path to limiting global warming to 2 ° C, or 3.6 ° F, above pre-industrial temperatures, they must commit to curbing emissions. triplicate, concludes the report. And to meet the even more ambitious target of 1.5 ° C, climate ambition must be multiplied by at least five.

These realities can seem daunting. But there is also good news in the report, Olhoff said. Olhoff is also head of climate policy and planning at UNEP DTU, a partnership between the United Nations Environment Program, the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Technical University of Denmark.

The good

When looking to the climate future, it is critical to remember that human-caused climate change is a problem that progressively worsens as we emit more carbon. Fortunately, humanity can still limit the ever-increasing consequences of climate change, even if a well-publicized climate goal (such as 1.5 ° C) is not reached within the next decade.

“The worst impacts of climate change occur with increased warming,” climate scientist Zeke Hausfather recently told Mashable.

However, the latest Emissions Gap Report emphasizes that it is about meeting ambitious climate targets. The pandemic has provided a unique opportunity for global governments to invest in economic recovery, similar to how the United States stimulated the economy and saved the American auto industry during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. This time, however, significant government investments can be used to reduce carbon emissions, specifically by investing in renewable energy infrastructure, electrifying transportation, reforestation, and eliminating billions of dollars in fossil fuel subsidies.

“We need to make some changes,” Olhoff said. “The opportunities to do so are huge investments that are paying off.”

A bold green recovery can reduce a whopping 25 percent of projected carbon emissions by 2030 (if we continue on the current trajectory), putting civilization on the path of stabilizing global warming at 2 ° C above from pre-industrial temperatures. There is already movement, although there are no official promises at a UN summit:

• President-elect Joe Biden proposes spending $ 1.7 trillion over 10 years (less than the United States has already spent on the war in Afghanistan) to reduce emissions, and aims to achieve “net zero emissions by 2050.” . This includes incentivizing the purchase of electric vehicles, promoting biofuels (which could be used to power airplanes), making buildings energy efficient, designing smaller and profoundly cheaper nuclear reactors, and more.

• China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The nation’s leader, President Xi Jinping, said that China aims to achieve carbon neutrality (meaning there will be no net release of carbon into the atmosphere) by 2060, which would require drastically reducing emissions in the next few decades.

• UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a bold green recovery plan, including billions of dollars in government investment and a 2030 ban on the sale of gasoline cars, to achieve net zero emissions.

So far, “126 countries covering 51 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions had adopted, announced or were considering net zero targets,” according to the UN report. But if the US, Earth’s second largest carbon emitter, commits to a bold green recovery as proposed by the Biden-Harris plan, that figure rises to 63 percent.

“It’s a big problem,” Olhoff stressed.

The bad

Global nations have no time to waste. Commitments must be translated into action promptly, but historically the wheels of governments tend to creak slowly, unless, for example, a nation is brutally attacked. What’s more, a world leader, the United States, is largely paralyzed by a broken Senate. A retiring senator called the main legislative body a “graveyard of progress.”

However, an ecological recovery must begin now because removing countries from fossil fuels will take decades, as these ancient, carbonaceous fuels currently provide 84 percent of the world’s energy. This means that nations must significantly reduce emissions over the next decade to get on your way to meet ambitious climate goals. Otherwise, bold commitments become impossible to keep.

“They can quickly become unviable or incredible,” Olhoff said.

It is also clear that the pandemic will not have a significant impact on future emissions or cool the planet. Yes, emissions fell by a considerable seven percent this year, compared to 2019, but many of these emissions are expected to recover as the pandemic subsides and economies rebound. The UN found that the pandemic will result in a reduction of only 0.01 ° C in warming by 2050.

The nations of the world will have the opportunity to formally strengthen their climate commitments at a pivotal UN climate conference (called COP 26) in 2021. Good luck.

“2020 is on track to be one of the warmest on record, as wildfires, storms and droughts continue to wreak havoc,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program, at a release. “However, UNEP’s Emissions Gap report shows that recovering from a green pandemic can dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help slow climate change. I urge governments to support an ecological recovery in the next stage of COVID-19 fiscal interventions and significantly raise their climate ambitions in 2021. ”

The ugly one

If the nations of the world do not commit to more ambitious carbon cuts and emissions continue on a moderately increasing trajectory, the world will warm to more than 3 ° C, or more than 5.4 ° F, this century, concluded the UN report.

That amount of warming would be catastrophic.

Already at just over 1 ° C warming, wildfires are increasing, the Florida-sized Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica has destabilized, sea levels are rising, droughts are getting worse and beyond.

“A 3C world will have catastrophic impacts for some, the loss of islands, corals, Arctic sea ice, some land glaciers, and not to mention changes in extreme weather,” Glen Peters, director of research at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Mashable said earlier this year.

“This is a world we want to avoid,” Peters said.

Unprecedented, though still possible, efforts will be needed to turn the climate ship around. Until the pandemic hit, global carbon emissions were. Atmospheric CO2 levels have not been that high in – although it is more likely. What’s more, carbon levels are now increasing at the rates that they do.