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meCOME IN NORMAL Sometimes Ethiopia’s plans to hold national elections in August would have been fraught with uncertainty. Would they be free and fair? Would they help restore peace in a country divided by ethnic violence? Now, with polls indefinitely postponed by covid-19, Ethiopia is approaching a constitutional crisis.
By law, Ethiopia’s parliament will reach the end of its five-year constitutional term on September 30. That could leave the country without a legitimate parliament or government. Abiy Ahmed, a young reformer who took office in 2018 promising democracy after mass protests, says that due to the exceptional circumstances of the pandemic, his government will remain in charge until the elections can be held safely.
The delay has sparked a backlash from opposition leaders. Many of them had suspected long before the covid-19 outbreak that the Abiy Prosperity Party would attempt to manipulate or postpone the elections: its predecessor cracked down on the opposition so completely in 2015 that it won 95% of the vote.
The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), who made the decisions in the country for almost three decades until he was expelled by Abiy, accused the prime minister of exploiting the pandemic to dismantle the constitution and lay the groundwork for the one-man government. He said he will go ahead with the polls in Tigray, the region he still controls, in defiance of the federal government. This dispute will further tug at the seams of a federation that has been fraying in recent years.
To avoid a confrontation, the government asked the Constitutional Research Council for an opinion on the postponement. But this is not an independent constitutional court. The council is simply an advisory body to the upper house of parliament, which is controlled by the ruling party, says Zemelak Ayele of the Center for Federal Studies in Ethiopia.
Although the constitution does not detail the circumstances under which an election can be postponed, it still provides a “framework” that allows it, says Adem K Abebe, an expert based in The Hague. But such legal niceties can count for little without the support of opposition leaders. To achieve this, Abiy may have to negotiate with them on issues such as election time, as well as allay their concerns about their impartiality and the independence of state media and the security forces.
Jawar Mohammed, a popular figure among the Oromo ethnic group, wants Abiy to start talking about a provisional administration that will take over until elections are held, among other issues. Abiy has met with his opponents once to discuss the constitutional deadlock. But he rejected calls for an interim government and warned that “illegal elections” “will harm the country and the people.” However, there is a risk that your prophecies will be fulfilled without compromise. ■
This article appeared in the Middle East and Africa section of the print edition under the title “Delayed Democracy”
