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Beijing, Nov. 8 (CNA) There won’t be much change in the way the United States supports Taiwan diplomatically and through arms sales in the next four years, even though Joe Biden has beaten incumbent Donald Trump to win. the presidential elections, a Chinese academic. he said on Sunday.
With Biden, the United States will continue to sell Taiwan enough military equipment to defend itself against an attack from China, Shi Yinhong (時殷弘), a professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, told CNA.
The Biden administration will also continue to fight for more international space for Taiwan, because both political parties in the United States have considerable consensus on supporting Taiwan, Shi said.
In terms of China’s politics, Shi said that because Biden is “much less wild, vulgar, and fickle” than Trump, Biden’s approach will be much more stable and predictable.
Biden will want to avoid a massive military conflict with China, Shi said, which likely means he will instruct top US officials to communicate with their counterparts there.
With his more conciliatory approach, the chances of a military conflict between the United States and China will be drastically reduced and tensions will ease between the two world powers, Shi said.
However, the US stance on other issues related to China will remain stable, so this ease in friction between Washington and Beijing will be mild, Shi said.
Controversial issues between the two sides include Taiwan, Hong Kong, the South China Sea, Xinjiang and Tibet, as well as religious freedom and human rights in China, according to Shi.
If China organizes a military strike against Taiwan, therefore, the United States is likely to respond with military actions of its own, Shi said.
Biden is also likely to mend his relations with other European and Asian countries, to build stronger resistance towards China, Shi said.
Regarding Taiwan-China relations under the Biden administration, Shi said he does not expect any change in this regard, as President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) refuses to accept the “1992 consensus.”
As long as Tsai rejects the consensus, Beijing will not have any official contact with Taipei and will continue to compress Taiwan’s international space, no matter who is in the White House, Shi said.
The “1992 consensus”, a tacit understanding reached between the then Kuomintang government (KMT) and the Chinese government in 1992, is interpreted by the KMT to mean that both sides of the strait recognize that there is only “one China”, with each side free to interpret what “China” means.
The argument is that Taiwan can simply define it as the ROC, the official name for Taiwan.
Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has called the consensus an “illusion” as Beijing has never publicly acknowledged the second part of the KMT’s interpretation or rejected it.
Tsai and the DPP have insisted that Beijing equates the “1992 consensus” with “One country and two systems,” its proposal for peaceful unification with Taiwan.
But the KMT has argued that it has never accepted the One Country Two systems and that it was still able to develop good relations with Beijing by accepting the 1992 Consensus.
