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Fans hoping for clarity on Khabib Nurmagomedov’s future were left with more questions than answers following the UFC lightweight champion’s meeting with promotion president Dana White last week. White has repeatedly stated his desire to convince Nurmagomedov to return to his declared retirement and return for one more fight. After the meeting between the two, White announced that Nurmagomedov was taking a wait-and-see approach, specifically when it comes to the two big lightweight fights at UFC 257 on Saturday.
In the main event of that card, Conor McGregor will return for the first time in a year to face former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier. Also on the card, former Bellator champion Michael Chandler will make his UFC debut against Dan Hooker. Depending on Nurmagomedov’s decision on his future, these two fights could usher in the beginning of a new era for the stacked lightweight division.
Assuming Nurmagomedov stays true to his plans to retire – plans that included a promise to his mother to stop fighting after his father died – we’ve taken a look at the top contenders in the division and lowered their chances of flaunting. the 155-pound title when 2021 draws to a close.
No. 1: Conor McGregor | Odds: 40%
There is little doubt that McGregor is the man the UFC would prefer to have the title for. He’s the biggest draw in the sport and any McGregor fight will do a great deal between his established popularity and his ability to sell a fight on the microphone. Assuming McGregor can surpass Poirier at UFC 257, he will be presented with every opportunity to fight for the title before the end of the year. McGregor has beaten Poirier in the past, although Poirier has really recovered since he returned to lightweight and McGregor’s long breaks always leave doubts about the stability of his performances, and he is a favorite to win again. That puts him in the leading position to be the man with the belt at the end of a 2021 calendar without Nurmagomedov. There are some interesting potential roadblocks for McGregor, however, in the form of Poirier and even Charles Oliveira. McGregor’s four career losses have come by submission and Oliveira is the UFC’s all-time leader in submission wins.
The biggest potential hurdle: Shipping Specialist
No. 2: Dustin Poirier | Odds: 25%
Poirier has proven to be a top-tier lightweight, but not one that can compete with Nurmagomedov. Who can, however? For all his skill, Poirier is a fearless fighter who is willing to go to war if that is what it takes, as evidenced by the seven Fight of the Night awards. That disposition can get him in trouble against the division’s most dangerous opponents, but it’s also the key to why he’s such a popular fighter. Poirier’s chances of winning the title are increased simply by having a chance to beat McGregor. A win over the Irishman in one of the biggest fights of the year would almost lock Poirier as a title contender in 2021. Poirier is 6-1 since 2017, with the only loss at the time being to Nurmagomedov. Still, his aforementioned disposition to go shot for shot with dangerous opponents puts him in a risky position against big hitters like McGregor, Justin Gaethje or Michael Chandler.
The biggest potential hurdle: Getting into his own head
No. 3: Justin Gaethje | Chances: 20%
Gaethje wouldn’t be the favorite in fights against Poirier (who beat Gaethje in 2018) or McGregor, but he would probably hold the upper hand over everyone else in the discussion. Gaethje has really scored from the mental shift from aspiring to be the most exciting fighter in the world to trying to be the best. That led to his late dominance of Tony Ferguson to capture the interim lightweight title in 2020. Gaethje’s game wasn’t enough to unify the titles against Nurmagomedov, but there are few with the fighting game to dominate Gaethje’s defensive fight from the way Nurmagomedov can do it. . And, power for proxy, no one can safely participate in a striking war with Gaethje. Dana White has suggested that Gaethje will likely face Charles Oliveira in his next fight. That’s an extremely appropriate fight, and even more worthy of being part of a “mini-tournament” to crown a new champion than Michael Chandler versus Dan Hooker. A fight between the winners of Gaethje vs. Oliveira and McGregor vs. Poirier would be an excellent way to crown a new division king.
The biggest potential hurdle: Returning to the “more exciting fighter” mode
Nº 4: Charles Oliveira | Chances: 10%
That Oliveira is in this discussion is something incredible. Most fighters who begin their careers at UFC 10-8, as Oliveira did from 2010 to 2017, fall firmly into the category of goalkeeper or day laborer for the remainder of their career. Instead, Oliveira has notched up eight wins in a row, culminating in an absolutely dominant win over Tony Ferguson in December. Oliveira’s skill set makes him such an interesting wild card in the equation. His running game is a unique factor, having scored the most submission wins in UFC history, but Oliveira also possesses some flashy punches and completely dominated the wrestling game against Ferguson, easily defeating a great and strong contender. in all three rounds. Oliveira might not be the favorite against the other elites in the division, but he has the potential to cause upsets against anyone.
The biggest potential hurdle: Defensive fighters
# 5: Michael Chandler | Chances: 4%
Chandler is somewhat of an unknown when it comes to performing in the UFC. We’ve seen him triumph in the Bellator cage against Eddie Alvarez and Benson Henderson, both men who held the UFC light gold. He has also had stumbling blocks and losses against opponents not on par with the elite of the UFC division. Chandler is an outstanding fighter and absolutely deserving of the opportunity to demonstrate his ability to compete at the championship level. Dan Hooker is a great starting opponent for Chandler and provides an immediate yardstick for Chandler. As already stated, the four men above him on this list have better and cleaner paths to a title shot. A win over Hooker alone may not be enough to put Chandler in the title mix, unless Oliveira vs. Gaethje doesn’t happen for several months and the UFC rushes to book a fight between the winners of the lightweight bouts. from UFC 257. Hope is alive for Chandler’s reign of the title, it will just take some great performances and lucky breaks in the schedule. It also helps that Chandler has the “shiny new toy” factor going for him, which always brings a bit of hype.
The biggest potential hurdle: Get caught clean in reckless moments
No. 6 – Dan Hooker | Chances: 1%
Hooker is largely in the same boat as Chandler in that getting to a title shot requires winning that fight and then breaking the schedule to end up in a title fight. He has slightly worse chances than Chandler to win the title just from matchups. We’ve already seen him lose to Poirier and it’s hard to imagine him winning a rematch or beating McGregor, Gaethje or others. Plus, the recent loss to Poirier could have the UFC decide that being Chandler isn’t enough to put Hooker in a title fight on his next outing. A Hooker title reign is extremely unlikely, but there is at least some of a visible path to a championship shot for The Hangman.
The biggest potential hurdle: Too outgunned at the elite level
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