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Thorny issue of a divided island
After the election of Ersin Tatar in October last year as President of Northern Cyprus, the Cyprus question may move to a new stage. The Turkish government provided strong support to Tatar before, during and after the elections. The Tatar and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan supported the right of Turkish Cypriots to political equality, which is at the heart of the problem.
This principle was first emptied of substance in 1963 by Archbishop Makarios, then President of Cyprus. Greek Cypriots consider Turkish Cypriots a minority, not politically equal partners.
In the early 2000s, the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan drew up a plan for the solution of the Cyprus question, which involved the creation of a federation of two states. The plan was strongly supported by the EU, whose leaders lobbied to persuade Erdogan, then Prime Minister of Turkey, to encourage Turkish Cypriots to vote for him in a referendum in April 2004. EU leaders told Erdogan that If the Turkish Cypriots voted for the Annan Plan, this could facilitate Turkey’s accession negotiations to the EU. Erdogan agreed with this suggestion despite strong opposition from all political parties in Turkey except his own ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
In the referendum, more than 75 percent of Greek Cypriots voted against the Annan Plan, while 65 percent of Turkish Cypriots voted in favor, mainly thanks to Erdogan’s persuasion. The following month, Cyprus as a whole joined the EU, although EU law is suspended in Northern Cyprus pending a final solution to the Cyprus problem. This is one of the important reasons for Erdogan’s negative attitude towards the EU.
Now, as a new factor, the UK, which supported the Annan Plan but has avoided getting directly involved in the Cyprus issue since then, renewed its interest. Chancellor Dominic Raab visited both Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots to propose a new approach to the Cyprus question, circumventing some obstacles to the accession of Turkish Cypriots to the EU through a different formula than the previous ones.
Raab’s plan provides for the creation of a new federation in Cyprus, made up of two sovereign “communal” states with the right to maintain foreign relations, become a member of international organizations, sign agreements and organize cultural activities and sporting events with teams from other countries. . This approach leaves unanswered the question of what will happen when the federal government objects.
If circumstances warrant, Erdogan can step back and sit at the negotiating table, and as a strong leader, he can still sell this new approach to the Turkish electorate. It is difficult to know if it will.
Yasar Yakis
Other provisions of the UK plan seem attractive at first glance, such as equitable representation: a Turkish president, a Greek president, with equal powers; and a council of ministers with nine members, six Greeks and three Turks. To be sure, the British government is proposing these alternatives with the best of intentions, but experience suggests that the Greek Cypriots would do their best to make such an arrangement inoperative.
Since the election of Tatar as president, the Cyprus question has undergone a paradigm shift between Turkey and Northern Cyprus. Initially there was a softer approach, and the Turkish side said it would continue to explore the possibility of a partnership on the condition of political equality. If Erdogan means what he says, this seems to have been overtaken by events.
The UN Secretary-General plans a meeting on Cyprus in March in a 5 + 1 format (Turkey, Greece, the United Kingdom as guarantor powers; Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots as two main stakeholders; and the UN secretariat), which Turkey supports. . Last week, Greece and Cyprus said they would accept a peace deal only if it was based on UN resolutions. Two days later, Greek Prime Minister Kiriakos Mitsotakis said that conditions were not yet ripe for a meeting with Erdogan, but that it was important to keep talking.
This comment appears to have angered Erdogan. He said that he could not meet Mitsotakis and, apparently deviating from the written text, added: “Mitsotakis challenged me. How can we sit with you now? Know your limits first. If you really seek peace, don’t challenge me. “He continued:” There is no longer any solution other than the two-state solution. Only in these circumstances can we sit at the table on Cyprus. Otherwise, everyone should go their own way. “
Will Erdogan retire from this challenging position? He is a pragmatic and strong leader. If circumstances warrant, you can step back and sit at the negotiating table and, as a strong leader, you can still sell this new approach to the Turkish electorate.
It is difficult to know if it will.
- Yasar Yakis is a former Turkish Foreign Minister and a founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Arab News.
