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New York, November 4 (IANS) The US election poll forecasting industry has exploded again and the US woke up to burning embers, finding very little adjacency in the extreme math of 24 hours ago and the US electoral map.
Four years after most pollsters confused the election of Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump, it appears they have done it again. With a few exceptions.
Trafalgar, the pollster who correctly scored the crucial races in 2016, got it right in Florida this time. Susquehanna and FOX / Insider Advantage also called out Florida for Trump in the final sprint.
Nine states have yet to announce results. It is working very, very close and there are many things that we still do not know.
This is what we know. Polls taken just before Election Day gave Joe Biden an average lead in the high single digits nationally and a narrow single-digit lead on the battlefields. On election night, those numbers quickly melted away.
FiveThirtyEight’s final average of multiple surveys, rated on a sliding scale of quality, gave Biden a national advantage of nearly nine points. Similar projections from other aggregators sparked a conversation about a broad rejection of Trump and Trumpism and a recalibration of American politics. Nothing to see there. Not yet.
The next morning, four years after Trump’s first term, America clings to a political color code that is all too familiar.
If anything changed, it’s that Trump traveled all over major Florida early on election night. Their totals in a key county topped their 2016 numbers by more than 100,000 votes.
The changed circumstances, including a national reckoning over racial justice and an ongoing pandemic that has killed more than 231,000 Americans, has barely dented the Trump / Trumpism armor. Not yet.
Insider Advantage, one of the pollsters who got it right in Florida, told the Wall Street Journal that it all comes down to “looking for the average guy on the street.”
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