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Both federal and resistance forces are preparing for a long battle in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Conditions for civilians are dire and hunger is a growing danger. Outside powers should urge Addis Ababa to allow more aid in the war zone, while maintaining pressure for talks.
What’s new?War continues in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, and civilians are the most affected by a brutal conflict marked by atrocities. Under international pressure, Addis Ababa has offered concessions on access to aid and promised that Eritrean troops will withdraw. But the prospects for a negotiated deal seem dim.
Why does that matter?Tigray’s deep-rooted resistance, combined with the determination of the Ethiopian and Eritrean authorities to keep fugitive Tigray leaders from power, means that the conflict could escalate into a protracted war. That would further devastate Tigray and greatly damage Ethiopia, the key state in the Horn of Africa.
What should be done?With a decisive victory on the battlefield for either party, a remote prospect, the parties must consider a cessation of hostilities that allows greater access to humanitarian aid. This first practical step would reduce the suffering of civilians and ideally pave the way for a return to dialogue in the future.
I. General description
Although Ethiopia’s federal government claimed that the war in the country’s Tigray region had ended in November, fighting continues, at great cost to an affected population caught up in a multifaceted conflict. The overthrown Tigray leadership appears to have consolidated its position in rural areas and its resistance is supported by a Tigray population that values the autonomy of the region. As part of the federal war effort, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recruited forces from Eritrea and also from the Amhara region in Ethiopia. This move added to the Tigrayans’ sense of injustice and broadened support for the rebellion, particularly as fighters from Eritrea and Amhara are accused of atrocities against civilians. While mounting evidence of abuses and international pressure have forced concessions from Addis Ababa, including an announcement that Eritrean forces will withdraw, the war appears set to continue. Led by the US, the European Union, the African Union and the UN, external actors must push for a pause in the fight as an urgent priority to allow for greater delivery of aid, and continue to demand that the parties seek a negotiated agreement.
All sides of the conflict in Ethiopia’s northernmost region appear to be preparing for a protracted battle. The Tigray leadership, although ousted from power in Mekelle, the region’s capital, has united under the banner of the Tigray Defense Forces, an armed resistance group. It is led by the ousted Tigrayan leaders and commanded by former high-ranking officers of the Ethiopian National Defense Force. It currently operates mainly from rural areas in central and southern Tigray, while federal troops control the main roads and urban areas. Eritrean soldiers have their largest presence in northern Tigray and Amhara forces patrol western Tigray and the far south. All parties are obsessed with achieving a military victory. None seem capable of achieving one in the short term. The Tigrayan resistance appears to enjoy broad support in the region, while the federal authorities and their allies are determined to capture their leaders and bring them to trial. The positioning of the parties means that the conflict could well last for months, or even years, a result that would be even more disastrous for Tigray and the rest of the country.
Urgent action is needed to stop the tragedy. Direct talks between the parties seem like a distant prospect today, as Prime Minister Abiy rejects the idea of involving Tigray leaders whom he describes as traitors. For now, the US, the EU, the AU, the UN Security Council and other actors should push for more limited but critical gains. In particular, they should demand a cessation of hostilities that at least allows for a rapidly expanded delivery of aid. To avoid the risk of mass starvation, it is critical that plowing and sowing take place when Tigray’s rainy season arrives in the coming months. Addis Ababa should also tacitly allow aid groups to negotiate access to Tigray-controlled areas. Pulling out Eritrean forces may not be easy, given the apparent determination of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki to crush the leaders of Tigray, but Ethiopia’s foreign partners should make Abiy deliver on their promise that these forces will leave. Iran. The first steps along these lines could, if all goes well, eventually usher in talks between the federal government and Tigrayan representatives.
