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Rabat – During a recent visit to Nigeria, the Algerian Foreign Minister had to accept the new normal in Morocco-Nigeria relations. Sabri Boukadoum, Algeria’s top diplomat, visited Abuja on Friday to discuss business and shore up support for the Polisario, its proxy militia.
With the Polisario increasingly isolated in the diplomatic sphere, Algeria fears becoming the sole sponsor of the Sahrawi militia that houses, feeds and arms. A dialogue between Boukadoum and his Nigerian counterpart Geoffrey Onyeama was likely aimed at gaining Nigerian support for the end of the 1991 Polisario ceasefire in Western Sahara.
However, the Algerian delegation left Nigeria empty-handed when it comes to Algiers’ effort in Western Sahara.
Even more concerning for Algeria was the fact that the Nigerian Foreign Minister did not mention the issue at all in his post-meeting tweets.
No statement of support for the Polisario followed Boukadoum’s visit to the West African giant, which confronted Algeria with a new normal in Nigeria’s growing relationship with Morocco.
Changing history
Nigeria has long been a vocal supporter of the Algerian-backed Polisario. Along with other major African countries, notably South Africa and Algeria, the West African country saw the tensions in Western Sahara as a way to limit Morocco’s influence on the continent. But half a decade of effective win-win diplomacy with Morocco appears to have changed Nigeria’s understandable geopolitical stance.
During Morocco’s absence from the African Union (AU), countries such as Algeria, Ethiopia, South Africa and Nigeria were the main actors in African geopolitics. However, Morocco’s readmission to the AU in 2017 changed this balance of power.
The story of Morocco’s renewed influence in Africa began in June 2016, when King Mohammed VI invited Rwandan President Paul Kagame to Rabat, a month before the 27th AU Summit in the Rwandan capital, Kigali. The diplomatic visit marked the resurgence of Morocco on the continent.
Shortly after President Kagame’s visit to Rabat, King Mohammed VI embarked on a continental tour, visiting dozens of countries in Africa. For example, the king of Morocco visited Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Rwanda and returned home with dozens of new economic deals.
The King had begun a national mission to harness the economic power of Morocco to build new economic and diplomatic ties with his “African brothers.”
Genuine partnership
Highlighting this new diplomatic track was King Mohammed VI’s visit to the Nigerian capital Abuja in December 2016. Each of the king’s visits to Africa strengthened mutually beneficial economic ties while sparking support for the cause. of the Polisario.
Morocco provided a clear South-South cooperation strategy based on shared economic objectives that changed the future of international relations on the continent.
If anything, the commitment of Moroccan phosphate giant OCP to build a fertilizer plant in Nigeria to alleviate local food security appears to have moved Morocco-Nigeria relations from a mere rapprochement to a solid and strategic friendship.
But the icing on this win-win cake has been the much-announced Morocco-Nigeria gas pipeline project.
Nigeria has long depended on Western oil companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Total, and Texaco. But these deals have proven less win-win than initially promised. As a result, Nigeria has faced environmental disasters compounded by the irresponsible and highly toxic practices of international oil companies.
Where Western countries came to exploit Nigeria’s oil riches, Morocco came to help the country benefit from its resources in genuine economic collaboration between equal partners. While Moroccan fertilizers now help increase Nigeria’s agricultural yields, the planned 5,660 km pipeline will help Nigeria export its petroleum products to North Africa and Europe on its own terms.
New dynamic
The mutually beneficial economic relations between Nigeria and Morocco began to change Abuja’s stance on the Polisario’s claims.
Before 2016, Nigeria was among the group’s most vocal supporters, creating a powerful bloc with Algeria and South Africa. Like other Polisario champions, Nigeria had even compared the cause of the militant group to that of the Palestinians. And this was as late as 2015.
However, in the five years since economic cooperation with Morocco grew, support for the Polisario has declined in Nigeria, as well as in Botswana, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia.
To the frustration of Algeria and South Africa, who remained fearful of Morocco’s growing influence, Nigeria was among the countries that supported Morocco’s decision to rejoin the AU. In many ways, 2016 has proven to be a turning point for both Morocco and the Polisario sponsors, at least on the continental stage.
Since 2016, Nigeria no longer includes references to Western Sahara in its UN statements. Even more poignant, the country now considers any durable solution to be preferable to the demands of an independence referendum championed by Algeria and its representative Polisario.
A new normal?
Nominally, Nigeria still recognizes the so-called Polisario republic, but in practice Abuja no longer calls for an exclusive independence referendum. Instead, the West African giant supports the efforts of the AU and the UN to find a lasting solution to achieve peace in Western Sahara. For most observers, this means that the dye has been thrown largely in Morocco’s favor.
The reality of the new normal in Nigeria’s relationship with Morocco must have disappointed the Algerian foreign minister when he visited Abuja yesterday. When Algeria’s top diplomat left Nigeria without a strong statement in support of the Polisario, he must have realized that the momentum in Western Sahara now belongs to Morocco and its proposed path to lasting peace.
Morocco’s OCP is meant to help ensure vital food security across much of the continent, and Moroccan diplomats are rapidly growing in reputation and efficiency. Meanwhile, as Morocco’s influence on the continent grows, we are likely to see more cooperation and fewer futile divisions that have dominated post-colonial Africa.
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