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By VANESSA GERA Associated Press
In a year of coronavirus pandemic, military conflict, democratic backsliding and accelerating climate change, Friday’s announcement of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize is expected as an opportunity to impart hope to a world in crisis.
From climate activists to political dissidents to international organizations, there is no shortage of causes or candidates for the Norwegian Nobel Committee to consider for what remains arguably the world’s most prestigious award.
The Oslo committee keeps top secret who it favors as the person or group that has done the most to promote peace, but that has never stopped speculation before the announcement.
The guesswork – and the stakes – this year has centered on Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, recovering from a nerve agent attack blaming Russian President Vladimir Putin and the World Health Organization. for his role in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic.
Even US President Donald Trump seems to believe he deserves the award, although one of the few predictions that experts are comfortable with is that he will be disappointed.
There are 318 candidates: 211 people and 107 organizations. Nominations can be made by a select group, including national legislators, heads of state, and certain international institutions.
The deadline for nominations was February 1, meaning that those on the front lines of the fight against COVID-19, which was only declared a pandemic in March, seem unlikely contenders.
Another blow to the WHO’s chances comes from its perceived mistakes early in the pandemic, including praising Beijing for its transparency at a time when China was hiding information about the virus first detected there.
Each year, the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, which is located in the same city as the Nobel committee but is independent from it, produces a list of worthy candidates that in 2018 and 2019 included the winners.
This year’s list is headed by the Committee to Protect Journalists, a watchdog that advocates for journalists in conflict zones and for press freedom. The director of the Oslo institute, Henrik Urdal, said that electing CPJ would send a strong message at a time of growing misinformation and while press freedoms are “being questioned around the world.”
Others on Urdal’s list include Reporters Without Borders, Navalny and its Anti-Corruption Foundation, as well as human rights activists in Sudan, Somalia, Libya, Hong Kong and China. One of them is Ilham Tohti, a Uighur economist who was imprisoned for life by China in 2014.
Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, believes Thunberg has a good opportunity to advocate for greater urgency in the fight against climate change.
“But I tend to think it would be better if it went to various activists around the world, possibly including Greta Thunberg, but not putting her on a pedestal alone,” Smith said.
He thinks that an organization, more than a person, has a good chance of winning this year.
“A lot of people feel like the world is in pretty bad shape. I think the committee might be inclined to try to deliver a message of hope and the possibility of change, and one way to do that would be by awarding the award to a movement or organization, ”Smith said.
Smith suggests that the peace prize could go to the United Nations, born to prevent another world war 75 years ago, and its director general Antonio Guterres, or to the UN World Food Program, which has operations in 85 countries. He says the latter would highlight how food security is “fundamental to peace.”
And Trump? He has been nominated more than once, including by an anti-immigrant Norwegian lawmaker in 2018 for his efforts to achieve reconciliation between North and South Korea. Since the nominations do not have an expiration date, in theory Trump could still receive the award this year. The president of the United States was also suggested for next year’s award for negotiating a Middle East peace deal.
Trump said last year that he could win “for a lot of things if they deliver (the award) fairly, which they don’t.”
Urdal, director of the Oslo institute, says Trump would not qualify because he has withdrawn from numerous international agreements aimed at bringing peace and stability to the world, including the Paris climate agreement, the disarmament agreements and the Iran nuclear agreement.
“The possibility of him getting the award is absolutely nil,” said Urdal.
Along with enormous prestige, the award comes with a cash prize of 10 million crowns ($ 1.1 million) and a gold medal to be presented at a ceremony in Oslo, Norway, on December 10, the anniversary of the death of the founder of the Alfred Nobel Prize. This year’s ceremony will be shortened due to the pandemic.
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Read more stories about past and present Nobel laureates from The Associated Press at https://www.apnews.com/NobelPrizes
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