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Two weeks have passed since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) announced the capture of Mekelle by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) in an operation, he claimed, averted civilian deaths and damage to heritage sites. During that time, the Prime Minister promised to rebuild the infrastructure destroyed by the group in their desperate flight. Although the operation to “restore law and order in the Tigray region” came to an end after the capture of Mekelle, there are still doubts about what the whole process of rebuilding the region would look like.
In addition to projecting the possible reconstruction process in the region, many express their concern about the enormous challenge of managing a region in which many people lost their loved ones and their property due to the public order operation that forced more than 40,000 people to flee to Sudan. .
Another challenge that analysts and politicians hope the interim government will face in moving forward has to do with addressing the issues of land and identity raised by different groups.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government have been at odds since the election of Prime Minister Abiy in 2018. The TPLF’s refusal to join its former comrades from the Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic Revolutionary Front (EPRDF) coalition ) in an amalgamated party that became known as the Prosperity Party that drew the formal line of separation between the two forces. Tensions rose to new heights after the federal government decided to postpone the general elections scheduled for August due to the Coronavirus pandemic. TPLF called the postponement process illegal, held regional elections in defiance of the federal government, and stripped the federal government of recognition after October 5, 2020.
The turning point in relations between the two, however, came when the TPLF rejected a change of leadership in the army’s Northern Command in October. The Northern Command is the strongest of all the Army Commands in the country. This particular command played a pivotal role during the Ethiopia-Eritrea border war and was stationed in the region for two decades during the “no war and no peace” stalemate. According to the International Crisis Group (ICG), the Northern Command has within it more than half of the personnel and military equipment of the Ethiopian Defense Forces.
The TPLF’s refusal to let in a new Northern Command leader in Tigray was a concern among analysts, with many warning that the relationship between the two would head toward conflict unless negotiations were carried out. The simmering dispute, which eventually led to armed conflict, occurred when the TPLF launched an attack on the Northern Command in early November, prompting government forces to launch a counteroffensive.
Some days after P.M Abiy announced a military operation against the ruling party in the Tigray region, the HoF approved a decision to abolish the illegal Tigray regional assembly and executive committee, and voted for the formation of an interim administration. This decision by the HoF was based on a legal provision that allows federal intervention in a region that is considered to have violated the constitution and jeopardized the constitutional system.
Proclamation number 359/2003 stipulates the conditions for intervention in regional states by the federal government, especially to save the constitution and constitutional order. The fourth part of the proclamation establishes the principles that allow the federal government to intervene when the constitutional order is in danger and, subsequently, article 12 of the proclamation describes the acts that put the constitutional order in danger.
According to this article, “an activity or act carried out with the participation or consent of the Regional Government in contravention of the Constitution or the constitutional order and in particular: armed uprising, resolution of conflicts between another Region or Nation, Nationality or People of another Region resorting to non-peaceful means means , alteration of the peace and security of the Federal Government, or violation of the directives given in accordance with Article 11 of this Proclamation; it will be considered that it has been an activity or act that has endangered the constitutional order ”.
Additionally, the proclamation stipulates the need to form an interim government once the federal government intervenes in the region to protect the constitution and constitutional order. It also highlights that the Provisional Administration will take the measures that allow it to stop the situation that has endangered the constitutional order.
In line with the appeasement of the situation that endangers the constitution, the interim government also has the duties and powers of “directing and coordinating the executive body, assigning the Heads of the Provisional Administration, ensuring compliance with the law and the order, facilitate the conditions for conducting the election in the Region in accordance with the pertinent law, approve a plan and budget for the Region and fulfill the other functions entrusted to it by the Federal Government ”.
This interim administration, according to the proclamation, will administer the region for a period not exceeding two years. However, the HoF may, when necessary, extend the period for no more than six months.
Although the operation and establishment of the interim government have legal foundations based on the proclamation, many still have doubts about what lies ahead in the administration of the region and the rapid restoration of peace and stability.
Following Mekele’s capture, Prime Minister Abiy said the next step is to focus on “rebuilding the region and providing humanitarian assistance, while the Federal Police detain the TPLF clique. However, some analysts believe that reconstruction is a process that comes after popular acceptance of the interim government as the legitimate governing body of the region. Analysts with this vision argue that urgent political demands also make the reconstruction process a difficult task.
Talking to The reporter Two weeks ago, on the challenges and opportunities that await when they begin to function as the interim regional government in Tigray, the executive director of the interim administration, Mulu Nega (PhD), said that the persistent identity and land claims of the region of Amhara could hamper your activities. in the region.
The CEO noted that he believes that the Amhara regional administration has no intention of claiming land within Tigray; however, he commented that people could claim land and identity within the Tigray region.
In this regard, there are concerned international individuals and organizations who have expressed their doubts about Ethiopia’s political uncertainty, even after the defeat of the TPLF. These groups of individuals and organizations are concerned that the TPLF will turn into a guerrilla war, making the reconstruction process difficult.
Given that the entire operation was completed in just three weeks, many expected that Mekelle’s capture would be immediately followed by the arrest of the TPLF leaders. However, the search for the TPLF leaders has already passed two weeks. With reports of fighting against TPLF leaders fleeing small Tigray enclaves including by state media over the past two weeks, the prime minister’s promise of an immediate launch of a reconstruction phase has to wait.
