The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summer by 2050, even if emission reduction targets are met

The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summer by 2050, even if emission reduction targets are met, a shocking study has revealed.

Experts modeled the impact of various levels of carbon dioxide emissions on Arctic sea ice, finding that the goals of the Paris climate deal will not be enough.

Sea ice in the Arctic typically grows and contracts seasonally, but there is currently some ice left, which is home to animals like polar bears.

However, the team behind the findings said we can still have control over how often the Arctic thaws and for how long in the future, but only if emissions are reduced.

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The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summer by 2050, even if emission reduction targets are met, a shocking study has revealed. In the image, the Arctic ice is home to polar bears.

Experts modeled the impact of various levels of carbon dioxide emissions on Arctic sea ice, finding that the goals of the Paris climate deal will not be enough. In the image, the difference between the extent of Arctic sea ice in late summer in September 1979 (left) and September 2019 (right)

The climate modeling study was carried out by climatologist Dirk Notz of the University of Hamburg in Germany and his colleagues.

“If we reduce global emissions rapidly and substantially, and thus keep global warming below 2 ° C relative to pre-industrial levels, Arctic sea ice will likely disappear occasionally in summer even before 2050,” said the Dr. Notz.

“This really surprised us,” he added.

Currently, the North Pole is covered in sea ice throughout the year, but each summer the area of ​​the sea covered by the ice decreases before re-growing in winter.

As a result of the warming effect of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, areas of the Arctic Ocean that were once constantly covered in ice began to thaw during the summer months.

Going forward, if humanity manages to reduce its emission levels rapidly, completely ice-free years in the Arctic are forecast to occur only occasionally.

However, with higher emissions, the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summers of most years.

Sea ice in the Arctic normally grows and contracts over the seasons, but today there is always some ice left, which is home to animals like polar bears. In the image, researchers conduct analyzes on Arctic sea ice, which may disappear entirely in the summer before 2050.

The additional melt will not only contribute to sea level rise, but will also mean the loss of precious hunting areas and habitats for polar bears and seals.

In their study, the researchers used the most up-to-date climate models to predict the effects of different levels of carbon dioxide on the state of the Arctic sea ice.

These are the same models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the environmental research arm of the United Nations.

The full study findings were published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS OF LOWER SEA ICE LEVELS?

The amount of Arctic sea ice peaks around March as winter draws to a close.

NASA recently announced that the maximum amount of sea ice this year was low, after three other record measurements taken in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

This can lead to a number of negative effects that affect climate, weather patterns, plant and animal life, and indigenous human communities.

The amount of sea ice in the Arctic is decreasing, and this has dangerous consequences, says NASA.

Additionally, disappearing ice can alter shipping routes and affect coastal erosion and ocean circulation.

NASA researcher Claire Parkinson said: “ The Arctic sea ice sheet continues to decrease and this is related to continued warming of the Arctic.

“ It is a two-way street: warming means that less ice will form and more ice will melt, but also, because there is less ice, less incident solar radiation is reflected, and this contributes to warming