The 737Max is making a comeback and it will be a successful aircraft

The newly announced FAA announcement describing the return of the Boeing

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The 737MAX aircraft arrives at a time when many planes are on the ground and demand for air travel is still weak. But this is good news for airlines with MAX, those with non-canceled orders for MAX and for the industry in general.

Although this aircraft got off to a dire start killing 346 people in two separate but related crashes, the reason it was selling well before these crashes will make it a popular aircraft for many years to come.

The correct size

While wide-body jets like the iconic Boeing 747 or the now-discontinued Airbus A380 are the best photos and stories, it’s the 120-190-seat narrow-body jets that dominate global aviation. The Boeing 737, in its many models and configurations, together with the Airbus A320 family make up more than a quarter of all commercial aircraft on the planet. This is because this size category fits a plurality of airline markets on the planet. More people fly flights in the two to four hour range than fly around the world, and they do so much more frequently as well. The 737MAX and A320 NEO represent the most advanced current state of engineering available in this size category. Of the older aircraft that will be retired in the next 10 years, most are in this size category as well, so the MAX meets the world’s need for size for aircraft.

The right economy

Commercial aircraft are expensive to own and operate. The 737MAX was born because its main commercial competitor, Airbus, successfully created the A320 NEO. This aircraft, where NEO stands for “New Engine Option,” offered fuel savings of 15% or more compared to older models, and the aircraft sold quickly as a result. Boeing created the MAX to compete with the NEO, as designing a completely new aircraft from scratch would have taken too long and fraught with risk. The MAX also promised 15% fuel savings compared to older 737 models, and the aircraft is slightly lighter than the A320 and can hold more seats in the densest configuration for each aircraft. That is why efficient airlines like Southwest

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and RyanAir from Europe were eager to upgrade to this newer model. Those economic realities have not changed and, in fact, may be even more important as airlines struggle to stay alive and financially liquid during this weak demand. The fact is, the MAX, when it returns safely, will be a way for airlines to improve their efficiency. Add in the fact that Boeing will likely need to prime the sales pump with especially good prices, and the economy will look even better.

Businesses need competition to thrive

Apple

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makes a better phone because Samsung exists. Boeing became a market reality for Airbus when that company began to produce true quality aircraft that airlines and their customers liked. That forced Boeing to make better products than they would have without this competition, and despite the flaws that were revealed in the initial design of the MAX, Boeing could not have survived on the NG models alone to compete with the A320. Those who love competition and the efficiencies it can create should lean on MAX performance as it provides the only significant competitor to Airbus in this size category. And because of this, it will likely make Airbus improve and innovate faster than if they did not have this business threat.

People have short memories

Some initial responses to the return of the MAX have boldly stated that no one will trust the plane and if they see it on their itinerary, they will change flights. This bravado does not match history or observed human behavior. Many people do not know if they are getting on a Boeing or Airbus plane, much less a specific model of one of them. The Boeing 787 jet was grounded early in its life when its batteries started fires on board. These days, people don’t think about that when boarding the 787. Of course, fatal 737MAX accidents are a more serious problem than battery fires. But, after nearly two years, with Boeing and global regulators agreeing that the updated aircraft, along with new pilot training, will be safe, it puts a lot on the line. If the plane wasn’t really ready, why not keep it on the ground longer? Clearly, there is no urgent short-term need for the capacity. Come back because it will be safe and people will get on the plane without thinking about it. I laugh a little when someone says they would tell an airline they don’t want to fly the MAX, knowing that the airline’s other option could be a 20-year-old aircraft that has gone through multiple maintenance cycles. Yes, this plane would be safe too, but that is not how customers see it when they board. How many people who said they would move out of the country if Donald Trump were elected actually moved?

Especially when it’s smaller, efficiency matters

The reality of today’s air demand means that most airlines are losing cash on a daily basis and collectively have thousands of planes on the ground because they cannot be deployed profitably. Most industry executives acknowledge that the airline industry will be smaller for some time, the duration of which is still unknown. So why is there talk of a plane going back into service after being grounded from crashing twice? Because especially when it’s smaller, efficiency is a rare commodity. As Southwest and others bring the MAX back to service early next year, these jets will in some cases replace the much less efficient capacity it now flies. In other cases, they will enable growth that is now profitable due to the improved economy of the aircraft.

The return of the 737MAX will not be announced by everyone, because for many this is a defective aircraft that could not be fixed with more software and training. The reality is not that simple. Real changes to the plane, and knowing that every pilot who flies it will really understand, means the economy will prevail. The 737MAX will be a major contributor for the next 20 years in commercial aviation.