Sudan reels into the future with no expectations of real change – Middle East Monitor

The pending cabinet shakeup, scheduled for next month, is unlikely to make much of a difference in Sudan’s current economic difficulties. Despite the signing of two peace accords ending 17 years of conflict in Darfur and South Kordofan, which in theory should lead to a redistribution of the country’s defense spending, the light at the end of the tunnel in Sudan remains barely visible.

The next few months will be crucial for the country’s prime minister, who despite an optimistic start to his term, has failed to get into Sudan’s major troubles and has had to endure a growing sense of despair caused by rising prices. . , the lack of basic medicines and the fall in the value of the Sudanese pound against other hard currencies. The plan to install a technocratic government failed with top ministers offering their resignations in July. In some respects, the wealth of experience brought by some ministers, such as former finance chief Ibrahim El-Badawi, a veteran economist, would always be insufficient in a climate where expectations were soaring and human capacity was severely hampered by lack of of resources remained in the background. The future policies of Sudan and the future government will mean setting aside caution and fully implementing the constitutional arrangement that has governed the country to date without key legislative bodies.

External relations, in the form of promoting investment and building sustainable international ties, still appear to be the most important means of achieving a change of fortune. However, Sudan is embroiled in a geopolitical strategic battlefield, not of its own making, where the Arab-Israeli relationship in the run-up to the US elections is taking precedence. A visit by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did nothing to change the country’s fortunes. Sudan had hoped the visit would address sanctions and remove its name from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, but Pompeo was looking to address Middle East issues and add Sudan to the list of countries that would make peace with Israel. Reports in the economic weekly Elaff suggest that Pompeo offered Sudan $ 500 million and a promise to remove his name from the list of states sponsoring terrorism in exchange for normalizing diplomatic relations with the Zionist state. Sudan demanded $ 10 billion, but agreed to a word form, that is, “Sudan has no mandate,” to apologize when it became clear that no agreement could be reached.

OPINION: The incompetence of the government is responsible for the floods in Sudan

It is feared that the spectacle of thousands of protesters with truncheons in the east of the country will become commonplace following the unpopular decision of the transitional government to support a civilian governor, a man with roots outside of Sudan. The appointment resulted in disturbing week-long scenes of violence between the Beja and Bani Armmar tribes that resulted in the death of at least three people and the injury of dozens more. The government was forced to give an embarrassing U-turn to the governor-designate, Saleh Ammar, replacing him with another candidate, but not before the current governor was rewarded with a foreign embassy to assuage his displeasure at being ousted.

The incident appears symptomatic of Sudan’s pending disintegration of the fabric of Sudanese society, as a report of community violence also increases in Darfur in the west and Kassala and Port Sudan in the east. National Ummah Party political veteran Saadiq El Mahdi said last week that Sudan has three options ahead: chaos, a military coup or snap elections. The strongest option seems to be a choice between chaos and snap elections, as despite the current political and economic conditions, in Sudan there is no desire for another military coup.

The three-month state of emergency due to the flood that has destroyed 100,000 homes, affected half a million people and has killed more than 100 people at the time of writing. The waters have brought help and support from abroad, but will add even more pressure to the economy as the country’s infrastructure, that is, roads, bridges and electricity, are affected. Added to the difficulty are the problems caused by the coronavirus with the closure of hospitals and beds reserved for Covid19 patients.

Over 100 Flood Deaths in Sudan – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/MiddleEastMonitor]

With the three-year transition period scheduled to end with the 2022 elections, the transitional government appears to be mounting great difficulties for any future elected government. Divisions in the ranks of the Freedom and Change movement, with the Communist Party choosing to stay out of government, for tactical rather than ideological reasons, means that Islamic-leaning opposition parties are considering how best to galvanize opposition to the government. Some of its leaders are in jail. Some are exiled abroad. While others like the National Ummah Party and the People’s Congress Party are considering making an alliance. This has not gone unnoticed by the military president, Abdul Fatah Al Burhan of the sovereign council met with the National Program Group, an alliance of traditional parties formed by Tijani Al-Sissi’s Sudan Renaissance Alliance and Ahmed’s Democratic Unionist Party. Bilal and various other groups that work with and alongside the old regime.

The fact is that the former ruling party of the National Congress has left a bad taste in the mouth of the Sudanese who have stayed to face the consequences of years of mismanagement and corruption. Sudan cannot afford to ignore the past, but neither can it afford to keep stumbling into the future.

READ: More than half a million people affected by the Sudan floods

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.