[ad_1]
An example of this is Sudan, which is home to more than a million refugees from its neighboring countries. The figures were calculated even before the conflict in Ethiopia broke out between the Abiy Ahmed government and its rivals, the Tigrayans, who were ousted from command after their rise to power in 2018.
Sudan is in a dark abyss that led to the ouster of Omar Al-Bashir from office after 30 years of rule. The Sudanese Revolution, as in many countries, did not quench the crisis. The current transitional government headed by Abdullah Hamdok announced “a state of economic emergency” to prevent the national currency from collapsing and to counteract the shortage of basic goods such as bread, fuel and medicine.
The United Nations hopes that Ethiopians fleeing the conflict in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia into Sudan could number 200,000, which means Khartoum will have more problems than its fragile economic and political conditions can afford. Some 30,000 Tigrayans have already fled their homes to Um Rakouba in eastern Sudan, the UN said.
Khartoum fears that the Ethiopian Civil War will spread to Amhara and lead its refugees to flee to eastern Sudan. In addition to increasing the economic burden, Sudanese stability may be compromised if ethnic Ethiopian clashes occur on Sudanese lands.
Clashes erupted in Ethiopia earlier this month when Prime Minister Ahmed ordered his forces to head to Tigray to confront what he called “the criminal military council,” referring to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). , who has been at the forefront of power in Ethiopia. from 1991 until Ahmed rose to lead the government. As soon as Ahmed, who hails from the Protestant Oromo ethnic group, took office, he fired the Tigrayans who held leadership positions and tried scores of Tigray officials for corruption.
For three decades, the Tigrayans had been controlling security, leading army positions and high posts in Ethiopia. They accused Ahmed of marginalizing the ethnic group, increasing tensions in the ethnically and religiously divided country. In an attempt to bridge such divisions, Ahmed dissolved the ruling Popular Revolutionary Democratic Front, made up of various ethnic parties representing components of the Ethiopian people. Instead, he formed the Prosperity Party, which the TPLF refused to join.
The conflict erupted when Tigray’s leadership rejected the central government’s decision to postpone the general elections, scheduled for September 2020, indefinitely, citing fears of the spread of the coronavirus. Many observers dismissed the government’s claim, because even before the pandemic spread, estimates indicated that there was a possibility that the Ethiopian state would “disintegrate” if general elections were held.
The Tigray region held a referendum that the Addis Ababa government called “illegal”. The TPLF said Ahmed’s stay in power was “illegitimate”.
The Tigrayans have not demanded Ethiopia’s independence, although the events of this month may lead to this result.
Ahmed has refused African mediation in the crisis, claiming that it is “an internal matter to apply the law.” The federal government in Addis Ababa gave the Tigrayans 72 hours to surrender unconditionally, announcing that it will have no mercy if their offer is rejected. The army leadership in Addis Ababa announced that it was heading hard towards Mekelle, the capital of Tigrayan, to surround it with tanks. The region may be bombed, the army said, warning the capital’s half a million residents of the repercussions.
Alex de Waal, a British researcher on Horn of Africa affairs, said quelling the rebellion in Tigray will not be easy or quick. Other ethnic groups can also rebel, he said.
Sudan may have a voice in determining the course of the conflict in Ethiopia, bearing the burden of tens of thousands of Ethiopian refugees. In addition, Sudan has had border conflicts with Ethiopia over Al-Fashqa for decades.
Sudan has not responded lately to Ethiopia’s postponement in the negotiations over the Ethiopian Great Renaissance Dam dispute. Khartoum declined to participate in the latest round of talks on the dam.
These conditions may lead Sudan to side with Tigray against Addis Ababa. In this case, however, the Sudanese opposition groups that signed fragile peace accords with the transitional government in Khartoum will support Ethiopia.
Consequently, there is likely to be a larger open conflict between Sudan, on the one hand, and Ethiopia and Eritrea, on the other, both allies against the TPLF.
Tigray had accused Eritrea of supporting the Ethiopian government in the current war. Asmara refuted the charges.
For decades, Khartoum has been involved in the affairs of Ethiopia and Eritrea. He supported the Tigray and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Eritrea to liberate Asmara from the Derg regime under the leadership of Mengistu Haile Mariam in the 1980s.
Khartoum remained a key supporter of Eritrea’s independence until the early 1990s, when divisions were broken after Khartoum adopted the Islamist ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood and Eritrea was home to Sudanese opponents and their families.
However, the bigger question is who will support Khartoum if it runs into trouble amid the Ethiopian conflict, especially with its deteriorating economic and political conditions.
* A version of this article appears in print in the November 26, 2020 issue of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link:
[ad_2]
