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A variant of the coronavirus that originated in Spanish farm workers has spread rapidly across Europe and now accounts for the majority of cases in the UK, a new study suggests.
The variant, called 20A.EU1, is known to have spread from farm workers to local populations in Spain in June and July, and people who then return from their holidays in Spain likely played a key role in the spread of the strain across Europe.
However, the experts behind the study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed in a medical journal, said there is currently no evidence that the strain spreads faster than other coronavirus strains. There is also no indication that the strain causes a more serious disease or affects how a vaccine works.
Dr Emma Hodcroft, an evolutionary geneticist at the University of Basel and lead author of the study, told BBC Radio 4’s Today program: “We know that there was an event of super spread among agricultural workers in Spain, which then the virus was able to jump to the local population and begin to move more widely in Spain.
“This happened in June and July when travel was picking up again in Europe and of course Spain is a wonderful holiday destination and a lot of people went there. What we think happened is that the increase in cases in Spain combined with that increase in holiday travel allowed the virus to travel to many different countries in Europe and when it got there it was able to spread quite successfully. “
Fast guide
What are the three levels of England’s Covid lockdown system?
Level one – medium
- The “rule of six” applies, which means that it is forbidden to socialize in groups of more than six people, whether indoors or outdoors.
- Merchants can continue to come to a home to work and are not counted as part of the six-person limit.
- Businesses and venues can continue to operate, but pubs and restaurants need to ensure that customers only consume food and beverages while seated, and close between 10 p.m.
- Take-out can continue to be sold after 10 pm if ordered by phone or online.
- Schools and universities remain open.
- Places of worship remain open, but people should not mix in a group of more than six.
- Weddings and funerals can go ahead with restrictions on the number of people who can attend (15 and 30 respectively).
- Exercise classes and organized sports can continue to take place outdoors and, if the rule of six is followed, indoors.
Level two – high
- People are prohibited from socializing with people outside their home or with bubbles of support in any indoor environment.
- Traders can continue to go home to work.
- The rule of six still applies to socializing outdoors, for example in a garden or in a public space such as a park or a beach.
- Businesses and venues can continue to operate, but pubs and restaurants need to ensure that customers only consume food and beverages while seated and close between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m.
- Take-out can continue to be sold after 10 p.m. M. If ordered online or by phone.
- Schools and universities remain open.
- Places of worship remain open, but people should not mix in a group of more than six.
- Weddings and funerals can go ahead with restrictions on the number of people who can attend (15 and 30 respectively).
- Exercise classes and organized sports may continue to take place outdoors, but will only be allowed indoors if people can avoid mixing with people they don’t live with (or don’t share a bubble of support with ), or for youth or disabled sports.
- Travel to open services, for work, or to access education is allowed, but people are advised to reduce the number of trips whenever possible.
Level three: very high
- People are prohibited from socializing with people they do not live with or have not formed a supportive bubble with, in any indoor setting, private garden, or most outdoor hospitality venues and ticketed events.
- Traders can continue to go home to work.
- The rule of six still applies to public outdoor spaces, such as parks, beaches, public gardens, or sports facilities.
- Pubs and bars can only remain open to operate as restaurants, in which case alcohol can only be served as part of a substantial meal.
- Schools and universities remain open.
- Places of worship remain open, but domestic mixing is not allowed.
- Weddings and funerals can go ahead with restrictions on the number of people attending (15 and 30 respectively), but wedding receptions are not allowed.
- The rules for exercise classes and organized sport are the same as for level 2. They can continue to take place outdoors, but will only be allowed indoors if it is possible for people to avoid mixing with people they do not live with. (or share a bubble with support), or for youth sports or for the disabled. However, in Merseyside, gyms were ordered to close when they entered level 3.
- Avoid traveling outside of an area with a very high alert level or entering an area with a very high alert level, except for reasons such as work, education or youth services, to fulfill care responsibilities or if you are traveling as part of a longer trip.
- Residents of a level 3 area should avoid spending the night in another part of the UK, while people living in a level 1 or level 2 area should avoid spending the night in a very high alert level area.
Dr. Hodcroft said it was the movement of people that allowed the variant to spread, rather than any suggestion that the strain was particularly powerful or dangerous.
“That’s definitely what we think,” he said. “We are in the process of working with labs to inspect mutations more closely, but we think the behavior here was the tipping point, and some flaws in the travel system over the summer that we really hope we can learn about in the future to that next time, when we start to open trips again, we will not have to risk that the cases will increase again.
“I think there were actually three real flaws here. So first, the cases increased in Spain earlier than in most of Europe, but we still allowed people to travel there.
“On top of that, we didn’t actually do a lot of passenger screening at airports, and it’s very likely that people didn’t follow quarantine as much as they were supposed to.
And finally, if the variant came back to another European country, those countries couldn’t cut that quickly with just a few people, and instead had a good environment where it could spread more widely, so I think these are all things that we could address. “
She said the strain was not the most prominent variant in all countries, particularly France and Belgium. The study found that in Wales and Scotland, the variant accounted for around 80% of cases in mid-September, while the frequencies in Switzerland and England were around 50% at that time.
Hodcroft said: “It is certainly associated with the second wave, but we do not think it is responsible for it.
“It is not very different from the variants that circulated in spring. It only has six more mutations, most of which we are absolutely sure do nothing.
“Most importantly, we don’t really believe that the mutations have any impact on the immunity that someone may have against infection or on a vaccine, and we have no indication that it changes the clinical course of the disease.”
