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Satellite tracking company LeoLabs sounded alarms after they found a dead Russian satellite and a discarded Chinese rocket have a 10 percent chance of colliding tonight. The predicted trajectories of the two dead objects see them at risk of colliding in Antarctica. A collision could spell disaster for future space explorations as it would create a huge cloud of debris in the atmosphere. Experts have previously warned that there are too many dead satellites in Earth’s orbit.
LeoLabs has sounded the alarm after discovering that the two pieces of space junk have a 10 percent chance of colliding in orbit.
The data suggests that the satellites are most likely narrowly lost between 8 and 43 meters at 1:56 am BST.
But LeoLabs also said Wednesday that the estimated failure distance for the objects could be only 12 meters, as factors affecting their flight path are impossible to account for and the chances of collision can change dramatically.
Mary Devincenzo, a spokeswoman for LeoLabs, told Business Insider: “These numbers have not changed substantially and this remains a high risk event.”
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The Russian Kosmos-2004 satellite and the Chinese Chang Zheng 4C rocket have been in orbit for years.
Kosmos-2004 was launched in February 1989 to help the Soviets with navigation and communications, but has since ceased to function while continuing to orbit south.
Chang Zheng 4C is a series of rockets used by Beijing, for space operations, with this particular rocket launched in 2009 and orbiting north.
The objects have a massive combined weight of 2.8 metric tons and lie about 600 miles above the Earth’s surface.
But the California Aerospace Corporation has dismissed the LeoLabs warnings, calculating a much lower risk of collision between the two objects.
Ted Muelhaupt, the corporations’ head of space debris analysis, estimated that the chances of a collision are only 1 in 23 billion, and he believes they will lose about 70 meters from each other.
He added: “It is not my intention to cast any shadow on your process or your sensors or anything else.
“But the sensors, the data that we have access to, they say we’re pretty sure they won’t affect.”
Experts have previously pointed out that space debris is a growing concern, and scientists warn that it could make the atmosphere impenetrable.
Current estimates by scientists hold that there are around 170 million pieces of space junk still in orbit, with only 22,000 tracked by experts.
In September, the UK government awarded seven companies a share of more than £ 1 million to tackle space debris.
Two companies, Deimos and Northern Space and Security, will develop optical sensors to track space objects from the UK, while Andor in Northern Ireland will upgrade its astronomical camera to track and map smaller and smaller sized debris.
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