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For Lebanon Obsiye
On February 8 this year, many people worried that Somalia would sink into chaos.
There were fears of street fights, bullets whizzing uncontrollably, and even a (false) prediction of a military mutiny. None of these happened on this exact day. The biggest fears were based on Somalia’s experiences in the past. The new Somalia is different. Still troubled, but different. It has valiantly fought terrorism with its international partners and achieved debt relief early last year after a rigorous program of economic reform led by the International Monetary Fund.
Elections delayed
Somalia’s elections are late. This is a fact. These elections are not even the universal suffrage that consecutive presidents, including the current Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, had promised. Nor are they the ones the Somali people expected finally escape the elite clan’s selection of their supposed representatives.
However, it is the case that Somalis are truly committed to democracy, as demonstrated above by the often belated but successful holding of indirect elections in which all former incumbents peacefully surrendered power. In fact, the political change brought about by some kind of vote every four years or so has been the only thing predictable and enjoyable in Somali political discourse.
Despite the usual reports of electoral corruption in Somalia, the fact that no incumbent has returned to power so far is natural political karma that is a testament to the promiscuous nature of modern global democratic politics.
Somalia’s interim constitution stipulates that parliamentary and presidential elections must be held within the government’s four-year electoral mandate.
However, this parliament has provided what can best be termed as a technical extension with the agreement that all federal institutions and actors, including the legislators themselves and the president, will remain in office until their successors are sworn in after the postponed elections.
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Though there is no specific time limit for this (the sooner the better, of course), this has always been the practice. This indefinite technical extension is unprecedented, but arguably a sensible and viable option in a time of a global health pandemic, increasing insecurity and financial constraints which is seriously affecting the people and economy of Somalia.
All Somali political stakeholders will benefit from the anticipated predictability and order that a potential electoral deal can and will bring to both Somalia and its international partners, who have so far been patient if it finally materializes.
Somalia’s major international partners engaged in shuttle, phone and Zoom diplomacy within the country continue to voice their concerns repeatedly in a coordinated manner, including through the recent UN Security Council meeting on Friday, March 12, 2021. in which they agreed that Somalia’s elections must be held “without further delay”.
Of course, while this strong and unified position and rhetoric should reinvigorate the electoral process, a consensual and implementable electoral agreement must materialize amid the current health, humanitarian and security challenges facing the country.
Of course, agree on the way forward it may turn out to be the easiest part of this electoral saga in Somalia.
The state of the nation
Somalia is truly a unique place. Nowhere has the collapse of the state suffered so miserably in the same dramatic way as Somalia.
Men and women were murdered, others mutilated, public and private institutions were destroyed, families were separated and thrown into the farthest corners of the world. leaving the warlords and radicals to fill the power vacuum in the absence of a functional state.
The pain, misery, and anger that resulted from this are still raw and visible in buildings and even on the faces of some people. Suspicion still lives in people’s hearts and remains in their minds. Still, Despite all the challenges, the Somali people yearn for a return to normalcy.
What is normal? It is a government that functions effectively, offering basic public services and opportunities for an entire generation that was born and socialized in conflict and uncertainty.
Today, despite all the anger, political stances, disagreements and tension, there are no Somali who wants to go back to Somalia’s dark past. The Somali people have now seen, felt and tasted some form of normalcy and there is no way for the political elites to trick them into self-destruction again. This is what should give all stakeholders hope that elections will take place in Somalia and that the Somali people will continue to move towards a more stable and democratic future, whether their political leaders agree or not. There is simply there is no alternative to this.
The choice of Somalia has captured the imagination of the world. It has all the makings of a blockbuster political soap opera in which the characters in power and those who seek it come from all corners of the world to seek presidential power that is determined by a select few legislators.
Local news reports are amplified by global media interest that has internationalized Somalia’s electoral challenges. For some it is ideological, and for others it is an experiment to see whether or not Somalia can find its way out of a difficult situation that plunged stronger nations into civil war in the past.
However, those who know Somalia will not worry too much because, despite the heated electoral theater, Somalis always manage to reach some kind of agreement to survive another day. The core of this agreement is usually some form of election in which power is transferred or, as has never happened in history, is retained by the incumbent.
Bottom line
Democracy is difficult. Even the developed Western nations, which are the beacons of the international liberal order, have recently shown the fragility of the democratic process.
The rise of populism and the response to the Covid-19 pandemic have shown tension in understanding politics and democracy as a whole.
In Somalia, the national political health is tested every four years and, like Western banks, there is often a lot of stress, but never enough to bankrupt the institution. In this regard, Somalia is a recovering but fragile state, whose democracy requires continuous dialogue, patience, commitment, and strong legal, political, and civic institutions to nurture and guide it.
Much of this is ongoing with the constitutional review process as a leader. However, agreeing on inclusive and truly representative rules-based governance in Somalia will take time. Rome, London, Paris, Kigali and any other capital or state was not formed in a day.
No doubt all sides of the discussion and the political divide will make mistakes in Somalia. However, the current electoral process in dispute will certainly be an important lesson in Somalia’s democratic journey while the result will set a valuable precedent for the democratic future of the country.
