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Among the many last-minute decisions by the Trump administration that will require a swift review by President Biden’s team was the option to withdraw nearly all US military personnel from Somalia. The move left some deeply concerned that the absence of US training and advice would leave Somali security forces unable to counter terrorist organizations at a time when the future of the African peacekeeping force, AMISOM, continues. being uncertain.
But the issue of the US military presence, important as it may be, is not actually the most pressing issue in Somalia. Even more urgent is the waning credibility of the election exercise scheduled for February. Tensions between federal member states and the central government have been mounting, and several presidential candidates now credibly accuse President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo of manipulating the indirect electoral process by ensuring that his allies will select voters. The prospect of competing parallel processes emerging as a result threatens years of hard work to build a political framework aimed at restoring some order and justice to the way authority is exercised in Somalia.
Too often, the political issues that are at the root of Somalia’s instability receive only a fraction of the attention given to the counter-terrorism agenda. But no troop presence can bring stability to the country in the absence of a political distribution that gives the different Somali electoral districts a certain confidence that their views will be represented, that the laws regulating access to power will be respected and that their leaders they will be responsible for their actions. Political progress, which in Somalia depends on creating a space for different regional power centers to coexist under a federal umbrella, is the essential ingredient in any path to stability.
Ultimately, that progress can only come from the Somalis themselves. However, external actors do play an important role. While Farmaajo insists that Kenya is a troublesome neighbor, other states have actually done more damage. The recently mended Gulf Rift exacerbated political tensions in Somalia in recent years, and the leaders of Eritrea and Ethiopia, who are currently undermining international humanitarian law with devastating effects in Tigray, have sought to bring Farmaajo closer. A counterweight to these influences is needed to discourage selfish political manipulation and revitalize agreed rules of the road. In a region ravaged by crisis, Somalia’s political future cannot be overlooked.
Blog posts represent the views of CFR members and staff and not those of CFR, which does not take institutional positions.
