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ADDIS ABABA – Analysts say that a peace agreement reached between Eritrea and Ethiopia in July 2018 has brought few tangible benefits as trade routes remain blocked and tension at the border still rife. They note that strongmen in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia, which borders Eritrea, have yet to forge a lasting peace agreement with the leaders of Asmara. The border has not yet been demarcated and heavily armed soldiers continue to occupy disputed areas.
Initial signals after the peace agreement between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki were positive: telephone connections were reestablished, flights between Addis Ababa and Asmara were resumed, and goods flowed through from the border. Experts, however, say there are still huge barriers to achieving lasting peace and normalized relations.
Many Eritreans began fleeing their homes to seek refuge in Ethiopia as a result of the opening of border crossings, meaning that trade routes were soon closed again. Analysts say that deep-seated historical tension between Eritrea and regional powers in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia has led to a situation where trade flows are now non-existent and many areas remain heavily militarized.
Selam Tadesse Demissie, a research officer at the South African-based Institute for Security Studies, said via a messaging app that the fruits of the peace deal were still pending, in part due to the Ethiopian government’s inability to suppress long-standing suspicions about its northern neighbor in the Tigray region. From 1998 to 2000, Eritrea and Ethiopia fought a border war that left an estimated 80,000 dead before a protracted stalemate over the next two decades.
“We expect much more from this peace agreement. If we look at it in time, more than two years have passed, so by now we should have seen many fruits of the peace agreement. But what is happening on the ground is actually the opposite, ”said Selam.
Selam said that interaction between communities on both sides of the border remains very limited. A point of contention within Ethiopia is whether federal soldiers remain stationed on the border with Eritrea. Immediately after the agreement, four border posts were opened, allowing trade to resume. However, they soon closed again after officials from Ethiopia’s Tigray region expressed concern.
There has also been no progress in demarcation of the disputed border areas, particularly around the town of Badme, which the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC), established to solve the border problem, decided in 2002 should belong to Eritrea. .
“From the Eritrean side, that rule still applies that whoever leaves their country will be killed. From the border side of Tigrayan it is still militarized, “Selam said.
Neither government commented on the status of the peace agreement.
Martin Plaut, a senior fellow at the University of London, said it seemed extremely difficult to gain much traction on the peace deal without new leadership taking power in the Tigray region, which ruled the country for about three decades and has been doomed. ostracized by the government. federal government in Addis Ababa. The region disagrees with the federal government and held elections last week even though the government deemed them illegal.
“The relationship between the Tigrayans and Eritreans and between the leaders between them is permanently bad. There is no way I can improve unless a new party comes to power in Tigray. The problems date back to the 1970s, they are very deep, they are very bitter, they are very personal and they are impossible to repair in my opinion, “he said.
Plaut added that one of the big drivers of the peace deal was a large untapped deposit of composite potash, which contains potassium, that straddles the border and is currently being developed by Danakali, an Australian mining company.
“It’s a massive, massive reserve that could provide potash for global markets for a hundred or 200 years. That’s driving a lot of this and people never talk about it, ”Plaut said.
Ethiopian and Eritrean leaders last met in Eritrea in July on a visit where Abiy from Ethiopia attended the graduation of a group of apprentices from national service, a program that has long been criticized for its forced recruitment. .
