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The Ethiopian government’s war against the Tigray regional government in the north of the country is nearing a watershed moment, as a series of military advances have paved the way for an imminent “final” assault on the regional capital, Mekelle.
Hiding in Mekele, after multiple defeats elsewhere, are forces loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Just three weeks after the start of the government’s ground and air offensive, federal troops have evicted TPLF forces from almost all major urban centers in the region, including the cities of Axum and Adwa, as well as Humera in the west. from Tigray and Alamata in the south.
A communications blackout has made it difficult to verify information on the ground, but the clashes are estimated to have killed thousands of people and forced some 40,000 to flee to the safety of refugee camps in Sudan, including those in Sudan. survivors of a massacre of hundreds of people. civilians in the city of Mai Kadra on November 9.
But while the Ethiopian military has told residents of the surrounded regional capital to “save themselves” ahead of an assault scheduled for Wednesday, warning that “anything can happen,” TPLF officials said even the fall of Mekelle would not. it would mean the end of their fight.
“Our forces still control much of the rural areas of Tigray and our governance structure remains intact in these areas,” said Fesseha Tessema, advisor to TPLF. “There is no military solution, only a negotiated policy.”
Hardened by battle
The TPLF was launched as a fledgling movement in the 1970s.
Seventeen years of armed struggle culminated in the capture of Addis Ababa by TPLF rebels in 1991 and the overthrow of the communist government of Mengistu Haile Mariam.
For almost the next 30 years, the TPLF would rule at the head of a repressive government populated largely by Tigray’s elites. The victorious Tigrayan commanders became ubiquitous in Ethiopia’s renewed military and intelligence sectors.
Under the leadership of the TPLF, Ethiopian soldiers were regularly deployed to crush internal uprisings of any kind.
In 2005, 193 unarmed protesters protesting the general election results were shot and killed in the capital Addis Ababa. A few years later, a particularly brutal campaign against rebels in the Somali region of the country left thousands dead or displaced from their homes.
But after mass demonstrations forced a change of administration in 2018 and the appointment of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister, Tigray’s unpopular elites were removed from their posts at the head of Ethiopia’s political and security institutions.
Driven out of Addis Ababa, the TPLF was reduced to rule Tigray. Long-time stalwarts from Ethiopia’s army and intelligence, many with years of experience fighting fighters in neighboring Somalia or integrated into United Nations peacekeeping missions in South Sudan, set out for Mekelle.
‘Strategic mistakes’
Therefore, many predict a protracted stalemate in the ongoing conflict that could drag on for months. In addition to well-trained special forces said to number up to 250,000, the region is believed to have counted on a generation of Ethiopian military shipwrecked, demoted or dismissed after the reorganization of power since Abiy took office.
People like Getachew Assefa, the former head of the Ethiopian Intelligence Service, described in a leaked US cable in 2009 as “aggressive and significantly influential”, are believed to be in Mekelle, home to half a million people.
Many have invaluable years of experience behind them and the ability to exert some influence on the military ranks.
Last week, the Ethiopian government appeared to be targeting these officers, when it announced that it had issued 76 arrest warrants against the officers it accused of “treason.”
Almost the entire list were Tigrayans, including many army veterans who know the ins and outs of the Ethiopian army. They are accused of colluding with the TPLF in its current war effort.
Among them are four major generals, 10 brigadier generals and 47 colonels, including Colonel Gebregziabher Alemseged, who in 2006 was the commander of the contingent of Ethiopian troops deployed to fight the Islamic Courts Union fighters in Somalia.
This is why the apparent inability so far of the Tigrayan military leaders to put up a determined defense against the divisions of the army they trained and commanded for years is somewhat puzzling.
“The TPLF made big strategic mistakes,” says Rashid Abdi, a Kenyan researcher and Horn of Africa analyst. “It is a conventional fight against the conventional armies of Ethiopia, which is an artillery force, on multiple battle fronts. We saw government forces make devastating use of their skills. The TPLF can retreat to the mountains and start a guerrilla campaign, surrender or take a last stand and lose. “
Ahead of the Ethiopian government’s expected assault on the TPLF stronghold on Wednesday, rights groups have called for the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure, warning that deliberate attacks against them “are prohibited by international humanitarian law and constitute war crimes.”
When asked if the government had plans for a post-war Tigray, Abiy’s press secretary, Billene Seyoum, referred Al Jazeera to a recent press conference in which Mulu Nega, who has been appointed head of the administration of transition of the region, spoke of post-conflict aspirations. , including the holding of elections.
But Mulu may be getting ahead of himself. Despite setbacks on the battlefield, some hope that a faction of the now-outlawed TPLF could re-merge in the mountains of rural Tigray, where the organization was founded half a century ago.
“The option of guerrilla warfare is on the table, although I doubt the transition will be easy,” Abdi said. “TPLF’s leadership has softened with power and ease of life.”
The entire Tigray region has been under siege since Abiy announced the start of military operations in the early morning of November 4, with cuts to telephone and internet services and a ban on journalists.
Refugees who fled to Sudan spoke of mass killings by government forces. Hospitals ran out of supplies and banking services were disrupted, leaving millions unable to withdraw vital funds.
“The Tigrayans are unanimous in their belief that this is a war against all Tigrayans,” said Fesseha.
“In addition to our right to self-management being eroded, the government is committing brutal atrocities against the civilian population.”
The government has denied targeting or discriminating against ethnic Tigrayans, insisting that its operations “primarily target the disgruntled, reactionary and rebellious members of the TPLF clique.”
However, the site that exacerbated the humanitarian disaster has fueled resentment towards Abiy among the Tigrayans. Whether that can help a generation of battle-hardened tacticians remains to be seen.
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