Second wave of COVID-19 in Africa is more severe than first, study confirms

The second African wave of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was more severe than the first, according to the first continental analysis published in Lancet March 25, 2021.

Daily infections were about 30 percent higher during Africa’s second wave surge compared to the peak of the first wave, the study found.

During the first peak in mid-July 2020, 18,273 new cases were reported every day on average in Africa. At the end of December 2020, when almost 36 of the 54 countries (or 66%) had experienced, or were currently experiencing, a second wave of infections, there were an average of 23,790 new cases daily.

The authors analyzed COVID-19 cases, deaths, recoveries and tests performed in the 55 member states of the African Union between February 14 and December 31, 2020. Data was obtained from the African Centers for Control and Disease Prevention (CDC).

Although the overall number of cases and deaths was low compared to many parts of the world, high incidence rates have been recorded in Cape Verde, South Africa, Libya, and Morocco.

Dr. John Nkengasong, CDC Africa Director said:

It is necessary to improve testing capacity and revitalize public health campaigns, to re-emphasize the importance of complying with measures that aim to achieve a delicate balance between controlling the spread of COVID-19 and sustaining economies. and people’s livelihoods.

The authors warned of a third wave of COVID-19 infections on the continent and called for continued monitoring of COVID-19 data, better testing capacity, and renewed efforts to adhere to public health measures.

The analysis was a joint effort of the Africa CDC researchers in Ethiopia, the United States CDC, the Ministry of Health in Morocco, the Nigerian Center for Disease Control, the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in South Africa, and the Ethiopian Institute of Health. Public

How the second wave took hold

The continent was able to contain and limit the severity of the first wave due to rapid coordination and proactive response, the report noted.

However, after a few months, African countries had no choice but to relax social distancing measures to overcome the economic crisis fueled by the lockdowns.

Therefore, relaxation and the drop in adherence to public health and social measures (PHSM) after the first wave were the main causes behind the severity of the second wave, the study said.

As of April 15, 2020, 48 countries in the WHO African Region reported having implemented five or more strict PHSMs. But as of December 31, 2020, only 36 countries had five or more strict PHSMs, said the study referring to data from the University of Oxford Government Response Tracker.

Countries continue to have lenient COVID-19 restrictions as of March 22, 2021, according to the tracker.

Source: Oxford University Government Response Tracker, March 22, 2021

Mutant strains and the surge

While the study did not quantify the impact of the new virus variants, it noted that mutant strains were also responsible for the second wave.

Some of the strains have been said to be more transmissible than the original strain. But the study that concluded on December 31, 2020 did not assess the effects of the new COVID-19 variants, including the South African variant B.1.351

On January 9, 2021, the continent registered the highest daily growth of cases (30,961), according to the World Health Organization.

This was seen as an indication of the spread of the new strains such as the South African variant, which was detected in mid-December.

In January this year, the president of Ghana, Nana Akufo-Addo, linked the increase in cases in the country with the new variant.

Last month, the Africa CDC warned the rest of the continent to remain protected against the South African variant.

The study called for the need to continue promoting laboratory capacity building initiatives such as the Partnership to Accelerate COVID-19 Testing launched in April 2020.