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February 26, 2021
CAIRO, Egypt – Saudi Arabia announced its intention to mediate the dispute over the Great Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia (GERD) during the visits of the Minister of State for African Affairs, Ahmed al-Kattan, to Addis Ababa and Khartoum in February.
Kattan announced on February 17 that the kingdom plans to hold a summit for the presidents of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia to resolve the ongoing dispute over the filling and operation of the GERD.
Tension has skyrocketed since Ethiopia announced that the second phase of filling the dam’s reservoir will take place in July.
Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in mediation before. The Saudi cabinet declared in June 2020 that “water security for Egypt and Sudan is an integral part of Arab security” and stressed the need for a fair agreement that takes into account the interests of all affected parties.
The kingdom also appears to be interested in boosting its relationship with Ethiopia. Improving relations with Ethiopia will strengthen Saudi diplomacy in the Horn of Africa and its economic ties in the region, particularly in the agricultural sector.
In Cairo on February 24, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry discussed with a Congolese official involved in AU affairs the possibility of forming an international quartet to mediate the stalled GERD negotiations that include The United States, the European Union, the United Nations and the AU.
A government source familiar with the Nile water problem told Al-Monitor, on condition of anonymity, “Egypt is open to all initiatives to reach a comprehensive agreement that preserves the interests of all parties. We still believe in dialogue as a way to resolve the crisis while rejecting all Ethiopia’s unilateral actions. ”
The source explained that Egypt still believes that the preliminary agreement reached in Washington in February 2020 is an optimal agreement that achieves the interests of all parties and reduces the expected negative effects of the filling and operation of the GERD. “Ethiopia abandoned this agreement.”
The source added: “So far, none of the mediators has come up with a clear formula. The main dilemma is the Ethiopian side’s refusal to sign a binding agreement and its attempt to operate the dam in the name of sovereignty without considering the interests of downstream countries. Contacts are being maintained with Sudan to try to coordinate common positions to confront Ethiopia’s unilateral movements ”.
Meanwhile, Sudan has been more critical of Ethiopia’s positions on GERD and border disputes. The Sudanese cabinet called on February 17 that the GERD negotiations be expanded to include the European Union, the United Nations and the United States, along with the AU. In response to Ethiopia’s continued insistence on starting the second stage of filling the dam reservoir in July, although no agreement has been reached, the Sudanese cabinet said that the filling of the dam reservoir “poses a direct threat to the Roseires dam, downstream in the Blue Nile. It also threatens irrigation systems, electricity grids and drinking water along the Blue Nile and Nile rivers to the city of Atbara, which threatens Sudan’s national security. ”
Since the signing of the Declaration of Principles in March 2015, the tripartite negotiations have not had an official mediator. The United States, the World Bank and the AU had sponsored previous negotiating rounds and participated as observers.
Despite the inability of international and regional observers to advance the negotiation process, observers from Africa believe that the Gulf countries, given their ties to all parties to the dispute, are in a good position to mediate a a way that you could bring everyone involved together and make progress. .
Gulf countries that have investments in Ethiopia are particularly interested in having the dispute resolved.
Musaed Abdel Ati, professor of international law and member of the Egyptian Society of International Law, highlighted the importance of mediation in the GERD dispute. He told Al-Monitor, “Mediation is the legal means to resolve the dispute. It must be impartial and fair to all parties to the conflict. This was applied during the World Bank-US sponsorship of the talks, which culminated in the Washington agreement. “
Abdel-Ati added: “Although it is difficult to start new negotiations under Gulf mediation due to lack of time in light of Ethiopia’s insistence to start filling the dam, such negotiations could produce positive results if Ethiopia responds.”
He continued: “Egypt showed flexibility and this allowed the Washington agreement to be drafted last February. He wants to reach a fair agreement that takes into account the interests of all parties ”.
Abdel-Ati criticized Ethiopia for its arrogance and “arbitrary” positions that violate international law and threaten international peace and security. However, he noted, “Ethiopia could forgo the second stage of filling the dam under regional and international pressure.”
Hani Raslan, head of the Sudan and Nile Basin Countries Unit at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, disagrees. He told Al-Monitor, “While Saudi mediation is promoted in the media,” Riyadh’s announcement “came a little late. Negotiations have faltered for more than 10 years as the Gulf remained silent despite its good relations with Egypt.
Raslan believes the Saudi initiative’s chances of success are limited by the same Ethiopian intransigence that prevented Washington from making further progress. “Ethiopia is experiencing difficult internal circumstances and has come very close to achieving its goals of dominating the Blue Nile. It will only make concessions under heavy pressure. Saudi Arabia could provide incentives, subsidies or aid, but it does not have the ability to impose pressure. “
He continued: “Efficient pressure on Ethiopia may come from a joint initiative of the Gulf and the United States. The United States has several trump cards up its sleeve, especially in light of the crisis in the Tigray region and the critical situation in which [Ethiopian] the government finds itself. “
With Joe Biden as US president, Washington announced that it was decoupling a US hiatus on aid to Ethiopia from its dam policy.
US State Department spokesman Ned Price said on February 19 that the Biden administration will review US policy on GERD and assess the role it can play in facilitating a solution between countries.
Meanwhile, US or Gulf mediation remains just an idea at the moment, pending a strong initiative that could break the Ethiopian hard-line position and postpone filling the reservoir until after coordination with Egypt and Sudan to resolve concerns about the expected risks.
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