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In the center of Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray Highlands, is a complex of monuments and museums. In the scorching sun, old armored vehicles, planes and helicopters quietly rust. In the wide avenues of the city, statues commemorate the “martyrs” and the victories of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a small group of insurgents that became a guerrilla army, launched a successful rebellion and finally ruled. the second most populous country in Africa for almost 30 years.
This week, Ethiopian federal forces have closed in on Mekelle in the final stages of a bloody offensive launched earlier this month by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed with the aim of eliminating the TPLF as a political force.
The rise of the TPLF took 16 years, and its dominance of Ethiopian politics lasted almost twice as long, but if Abiy’s “law enforcement operation” is successful, its downfall will have taken less than 30 months. “It is really shocking. The decline is very dramatic, ”said Yohannes Woldemariam, a US-based scholar who specializes in the Horn of Africa.
The TPLF was formed in 1975 at a time when hundreds of millions of people in Africa and the Middle East were demanding revolutions and liberation. Among those in Ethiopia who asked for both were a dozen young men from the mountainous region north of Tigray. Inspired by Marxist-Leninism, a deep sense of national identity, and the utopian slogans of the time, they envisioned a happy new world for their country.
Just a year earlier, Haile Selassie, Ethiopia’s last emperor, had been deposed and assassinated by hardline Marxist army officers, who immediately set out to impose a harsh authoritarian regime. In Tigray, there had been much resentment at the power of the centralized state of Ethiopia. Many recalled the Tigray armed revolt of 1943, which had been brutally suppressed. This time, the TPLF leaders promised they would triumph.
In the late 1970s, the TPLF grew steadily. In 1978, the party numbered about 2,000 fighters, according to CIA estimates at the time. Two years later, it could mobilize twice as much, the agency said.
Among them was Debretsion Gebremichael, who was then a wireless operator and propagandist for the insurgents and is now the leader of the group.
The success of the TPLF is not due to chance. Its leaders were ruthless and cunning. They fought and destroyed rival rebel groups in Tigray and were careful to downplay their own Marxist views, which would be unpopular with the conservative and devoutly Christian rural populations that formed the initial base of support for the TPLF. Instead, they emphasized the threat posed by the socialist policies of the Addis Ababa regime to local traditions and regional autonomy.
An alliance with like-minded leftist nationalist rebels from the Eritrea People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) in the neighboring province provided the organization with critical training and experience, enabling it to withstand the enormous firepower of the Soviet-backed government regime. .
“Ethiopia’s Large-Scale Military Operations to Smash [the insurgency] they have failed, with great losses of men and equipment, “the CIA noted in a 1983 evaluation.” The government has paid a high political and economic price. “
But the suffering in Tigray was immense, with brutal and forceful counterinsurgency campaigns that played a major role in the horrific famine of 1984. Television reports that sparked worldwide concern and Live Aid concerts were filmed in Mekelle.
In the late 1980s, the TPLF was by far the largest and most effective of the coalition of Ethiopian armed rebel groups that had united under the banner of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) to fight the regime. sick Ethiopian. On May 28, 1991, TPLF troops backed by Eritrean forces seized control of Addis Ababa, the capital.
The fall of the regime left TPLF leader Meles Zenawi, 36, in power and the Tigrayan-dominated army and intelligence services, who moved quickly to consolidate their control in other sectors. Jobs were found for former colleagues. Debretsion, the former wireless operator and now a close veteran of Zenawi, was appointed deputy director of the national intelligence agency and later minister of communications and information technology.
Debretsion’s career spans both sides of Ethiopia under the TPLF-dominated coalition government since 1991. There was the building of a carefully balanced federal state based on ethnicity, rapid progress in development, massive investment in infrastructure and a staggering economic success, which has come close to banishing the hunger that once made the country infamous.
Mekelle prospered, its orderly streets and power lines testify to the resources channeled to the TPLF stronghold.
But there was also a crackdown so relentless that it worried even the United States, which viewed Ethiopia as the cornerstone of its security strategy in the region and was willing to tolerate most of the excesses of the TPLF leadership.
Meles died suddenly in 2012, and his handpicked successor, Halemariam Desalegn, proved too weak to handle the mounting tensions.
Discontent, especially between the two largest ethnic groups, the Oromo and Amhara, threatened the delicate compromise of the 1994 constitution, and representatives of the two communities eventually joined forces to overcome the TPLF within the ruling coalition to win Abiy. , which is mixed oromo. -American family, appointed prime minister in 2018.
Abiy moved quickly. Senior TPLF officials were fired from key security positions, generals were arrested on corruption charges, and changes were introduced to counter Tigrayan’s dominance over the military. Political prisoners were freed from secret prisons, exiled dissidents were welcomed, cumbersome state-owned companies were privatized, and restrictions on the media were eased.
Abiy’s peace agreement with Eritrea, which earned him the Nobel Peace Prize, isolated the TPLF. By this summer, the latent tensions had increased even more. The TPLF refused to hand over wanted fugitives or join a new political party created by Abiy to replace the old ruling coalition, and went ahead with local elections in Tigray even though polls were postponed across the country due to to the coronavirus pandemic.
Observers said the decision was a “provocation”, even if supporters claimed it was a necessary defense of federal rights. Abiy’s office says the prime minister has tried to work with the TPLF but has been rejected.
The spark that set the Tinder ablaze came in early November with an alleged raid by TPLF units at federal military bases in Tigray, in which many national army officers were killed and substantial amounts of hardware seized. Abiy launched his offensive immediately.
It took federal troops three weeks to break through to Mekelle artillery range. It is unclear if Debretsion and the other TPLF leaders are now in town. Analysts believe they have likely dispersed in search of remote hiding places from which they can lead a protracted and costly insurgency.
“They are looking long term and trying to make Tigray a graveyard for Abiy’s troops,” Woldemariam said. “It is very tragic. Many people will suffer. “
