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A poll released Sunday night indicated that Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party would not make it to the Knesset after the next election, while Naftali Bennett’s Yamina continued to maintain the balance of power.
Figures released by Israel’s national Kan broadcaster were based on a weighted aggregate of all current polls, analyzed by the “Hamadad” website. No margin for error was given.
According to the results of February 21, just over a month before Israel’s fourth election in two years, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would win 30 seats, fewer than its current 36 seats.
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Yesh Atid of Yair Lapid was 18; Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope, 14; Yamina, 12; the Joint List, 9; Shas, 8; United Judaism of the Torah, 7; Yisrael Betyenu, 7; Work, 6; Religious Zionism, 5 and Meretz, 4.
Both Blue and White and the Islamist Ra’am, who recently separated from the joint list, failed to cross the threshold of the elections.
The numbers give Likud, far-right religious Zionism and the two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and UTJ, 50 seats.
According to Sunday’s poll, the so-called anti-Netanyahu bloc, made up of parties whose leaders have said they will not sit in a government with the prime minister, has 58 seats. However, it is unlikely that all of these parties, ranging from the parties of the right to the left and Arab, will be able to work together.
Parties must be able to form a coalition of at least 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset to form a government. Israel has never had a single majority party.
Yamina, as an undecided factor, with 12, remains in the position of kingmaker. Bennett has declared himself a candidate for prime minister, but has not ruled out being part of a coalition with the Likud.
Naftali Bennett visits the haredi city of Elad on September 6, 2020 (Flash90).
While horse racing polls are an almost daily occurrence in Israel in the months leading up to the elections and are not considered overly reliable, collectively the polls can often serve as a general indicator of the political climate and where it can be headed. voting.
Previous polls have generally predicted a political stalemate after the elections, with no party having a clear path to forming a majority coalition.
The national elections, the fourth in two years, were called after the power-sharing government of Likud and Azul y Blanco failed to agree on a budget before the December 23 deadline.
The election, like the previous three votes, is largely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s government amid his ongoing trial on corruption charges, as well as his administration’s mixed success in fighting the pandemic.
The predictions also carry a notable reprimand for Gantz, who ran side by side with Netanyahu in the last election, but lost the public’s faith by backtracking on his promise to never sit down with Netanyahu.
Gantz warned on Friday that if his party fails to return to the Knesset in next month’s elections, Netanyahu will immediately fire ministers on the centrist list, remove all remaining checks on their power and turn Israel into a monarchy.
“If I do not cross the electoral threshold necessary to enter the Knesset, and there is a transitional government headed by Netanyahu, the next day Netanyahu will dismiss all the Blue and White ministers, appoint [Likud’s Amir] Ohana as Minister of Justice, fire [Attorney General Avichai] Mandelblit, will not extend the appointment of [new] state attorney Amit Aisman, and turn this place into a monarchy. There will be a foundation of the structure of the [governing] regime in Israel right in front of our eyes, ”said a bitter Gantz during a passionate interview with Channel 12.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives for a court hearing at the Jerusalem District Court on February 8, 2021. Netanyahu is charged with fraud and breach of trust in three cases and with bribery in one of them. (Reuven Kastro / POOL)
Netanyahu has been relentlessly critical of Mandelblit and the state prosecutor’s office, claiming they fabricated the three corruption cases for which he is being tried as part of an attempted political coup concocted with the police, the opposition and the media. Gantz has repeatedly said in recent months that Blue and White’s presence in the outgoing coalition has protected Israeli democracy in the face of concerted efforts by Netanyahu and his supporters to weaken it.
While Gantz campaigned on the promise that he would not sit in a government with Netanyahu while the prime minister faced corruption charges, he agreed to do so in late March 2020 and formed a unity government with Netanyahu in May.
Furious, the Yesh Atid party and a second minor faction, Moshe Ya’alon’s Telem, broke away from Blue and White and entered the opposition. Azul y Blanco has seen its popularity drop since then, prompting a haemorrhage of lawmakers who left the party since elections were called last month.
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