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PARIS:
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies see oil inventories to decline further in 2021 if producers extend supply restrictions for three months or more, shows a confidential document seen by Reuters, supporting the case. of a stricter policy on oil production next. year.
Producer group OPEC +, for now, will increase production by two million barrels per day (bpd) in January, or about 2% of global consumption, as part of an earlier deal to steadily ease record cuts in supply that were implemented this year. . But weakening demand has led OPEC +, which groups together OPEC, Russia and others, to consider delaying the increase.
The report by an OPEC + panel, known as the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), said the rebound in global oil demand next year would be less than previously thought as the second wave of the coronavirus continues.
“By 2021, oil demand is expected to grow by 6.2 million barrels per day, year-over-year, representing a downward revision of 0.3 million barrels per day compared to last month’s assessment,” he said The report.
The level of oil stocks in the industrialized OECD countries relative to their five-year average is a key benchmark for OPEC +. Stocks have skyrocketed in 2020 as demand collapsed due to the pandemic.
According to one scenario in the report, if oil cuts were extended through the end of March 2021, OECD commercial inventories would drop to 73 million barrels above the five-year average in 2021.
If the reduction pact were to be extended to the end of June, OECD stocks would fall to just 21 million barrels above the five-year average next year, according to another scenario. The JTC met virtually Monday before another panel, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), meets Tuesday.
Posted in The Express Tribune, Nov 18th, 2020.
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