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Oct 30, 2020
CAIRO – Three days after US President Donald Trump’s remarks on Egypt’s right to resort to military action to defend its interests in the waters of the Nile against the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, technical teams and legal proceedings led by the ministers of Foreign Affairs and Water of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia resumed negotiations on October 26 on the dam under the auspices of the African Union. The talks come after a two-month hiatus in talks to reach a comprehensive and binding agreement on the filling and operation of the dam.
In an October 23 phone call from the Oval Office with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of Sudan’s sovereign ruling council, and Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok announced the normalization in front of journalists. Of Sudan-Israel relations, Trump discussed the dam dispute as a priority on his foreign agenda when dealing with Sudan. He turned to Hamdok, demanding that he do something with the Ethiopians.
“I made a deal for them and then unfortunately Ethiopia broke the deal, which they shouldn’t have done. That was a big mistake, “Trump said. He mentioned that the United States had suspended aid to Ethiopia for its rejection of the agreement, adding: “They will never see that money unless they adhere to the agreement.”
Trump not only attacked Ethiopia for breaking the agreement negotiated by Washington and the World Bank in February after negotiations that lasted four months, but he also warned of the possibility that Egypt could resort to a military solution. “They [Egyptians] they end up blowing up the prey. And I said it, and I say it loud and clear: ‘They’re going to blow up that dam.’ And they have to do something, ”he told Burhan over the phone. “They should have stopped him [the dam] long before it started. ”
With Cairo silent and not officially commenting on Trump’s threat that Egypt might resort to a military solution to protect its interests in the waters of the Nile, the office of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed issued a forceful statement in the English and Amharic languages on October 10. 24. The statement highlighted Ethiopia’s insistence on completing the dam and filling it according to existing plans. “Ethiopia will not give in to attacks of any kind,” the statement read. Occasional statements of belligerent threats that Ethiopia succumb to unjust conditions still abound. These threats and insults to Ethiopian sovereignty are … clear violations of international law. ”
In response to Trump’s remarks, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry summoned US Ambassador Mike Raynor on October 24. Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew said: “Incitement to war between Ethiopia and Egypt by a sitting US president does not reflect the long-standing and strategic alliance between Ethiopia and the United States, nor is it acceptable in international law governing interstate relations. ”
Meanwhile, the Ethiopian Embassy in Washington launched a donation drive to support the dam. Ethiopia’s Ambassador to Washington, Fitsum Arega, grateful donors on his Twitter page for his support at this “critical moment.”
Although Cairo agreed to return to negotiations under the African Union umbrella, the first meeting held on October 27 did not address any of the pending points of controversy. The positions of Egypt and Ethiopia and their vision of the agreement to be signed were unchanged. According to a statement from the Sudan Ministry of Water Resources, the meeting ended with Sudan’s agreement to convene another meeting, during which a clear and detailed agenda would be agreed, along with a specific timeline for the negotiating route, and a clear list. of the results to be achieved with the help of observers.
In this context, an Egyptian diplomatic official involved in the negotiations told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity: “Egypt has shown flexibility throughout the negotiating rounds since the signing of the Declaration of Principles in 2015. However, the Egyptian position has not and will not. change regarding the legal aspect of the agreement to make it binding and to establish clear mechanisms for dispute settlement and cooperation in water management in the eastern Nile basin in accordance with historic agreements preserving Egyptian water rights of the Nile “.
The source added: “Egypt is still open to any consensual solution to resolve the existing conflict and cooperate with Ethiopia. Egypt’s position in the negotiations has been made clear to observers and the international community. But we continue to receive messages that do not inspire optimism on the part of Ethiopia. It still insists on its unilateral policies to complete the dam and the filling of the second stage without signing an agreement ”.
The source emphasized: “The Egyptian political administration adheres to all diplomatic avenues to resolve the dispute with Ethiopia over the filling and operation of the dam and future water management in the eastern Nile basin.”
Muhammad Nasreddin Allam, Egypt’s former water resources minister, said: “The resumption of negotiations without clear and incomprehensible parameters will be mere random policies adopted by the AU in an attempt to meet Ethiopia’s procrastination goals. Egypt should not participate in this negotiation path without clear parameters. Cairo should take other diplomatic steps, such as referring to the UN Security Council. “
Allam told Al-Monitor that Trump’s speech, although it came long after Ethiopia gave up on signing the Washington accord, gave Egyptian leaders the go-ahead if they feel compelled to defend their interests when it comes to the waters of the Nile. “Egypt has repeatedly stated that it does not want to resort to any military solution when it comes to GERD [dam] Crisis. However, you must defend your interests when there are no other options or alternatives ”.
Allam also made reference to Sudan’s ambiguous position on the matter. “Although Sudan confirmed its dissatisfaction with Ethiopia’s negotiating positions, it has not yet signed the Washington agreement,” he said. “Sudan should take more effective positions with Egypt when confronting Ethiopian policies.”
With negotiations back on track, Burhan paid an official visit to Cairo on October 27, during which he highlighted the importance of Nile water to the Egyptian and Sudanese peoples, and called the matter a common national security problem. Burhan also highlighted the need to reach a binding agreement that guarantees the conditions for the filling and operation of the dam.
After Trump appeared to give Egypt the green light to resort to a military solution, the Egyptian and Sudanese sides resumed coordination to find joint solutions and cooperate in managing the conflict with Ethiopia in the eastern Nile basin. But while the negotiations Sponsored by the African Union have returned without mechanisms or even without an agreement on a specific agenda, Ethiopia insists on its timetable to complete the dam even without an agreement with the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan.
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