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The transition that many hoped would transform Ethiopia into a more democratic state has never been free of challenges from day one. Frequent protests have drained the energy of both the government and the public. Attacks and killings of civilians, high-level military and government officials, as well as prominent individuals, risked derailing the transition. Regardless of the adjectives that can be used to explain how challenging the last two years were in Ethiopia, it is undeniable to many that the transition brought both hope and despair.
Nation on edge: October 5 deadline
The transition that many hoped would transform Ethiopia into a more democratic state has never been free of challenges from day one. Frequent protests have drained the energy of both the government and the public. Attacks and killings of civilians, high-level military and government officials, as well as prominent individuals, risked derailing the transition. Regardless of the adjectives that can be used to explain how challenging the last two years were in Ethiopia, it is undeniable to many that the transition brought both hope and despair.
Many placed their expectations on the 2020 general election to level the field and at least show a path for positive political speech. However, with the extension of the elections, due to the global coronavirus pandemic, political tension was rekindled with the transition itself that was put to the test.
The Ethiopian National Electoral Board (NEBE), the only body in charge of voting of any kind, said that it had to stop preparing for the polls, originally scheduled for late August 2020, due to restrictive measures implemented by the government to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, first discovered in the country in March 2020. Although the NEBE decision was made before the country announced a state of emergency (SOE) aimed at preventing the spread of the virus, SOE came later. The overlap between the EPE and the electoral period, which the Junta says should be postponed, triggered one of the most exhaustive constitutional debates in the country.
In May 2020, the government proposed four alternatives to overcome the impasse. Presented to the representatives of the country’s political parties, in a meeting held within the premises of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), the alternatives were to reform the constitution to extend the term of government, extend the state of emergency, dissolve the House of Peoples. Representatives (HPR) or interpret the constitution to find a way to extend the election and terms of the HPR and the Executive body.
The current Attorney General, then deputy, Gedeon Timoteos (PhD) presented the pros and cons of each alternative. Finally, the government announced that it has opted for the alternative of constitutional interpretation.
With this began the hottest constitutional debate and discussion that showed the extreme facet of Ethiopian politics. Some, such as the Ethiopian Democratic Party (PDE), recommended a transitional government to set the stage for an inclusive transition. The Tigray Popular Liberation Front (TPLF) opined that there is no legal basis for the government to continue if the elections are prolonged, since the constitution establishes that state power that should only be assumed through elections. Others said the government should find ways to hold elections rather than postpone them, as they say, the country had held elections even during the Ethio-Eritrean War, two decades ago. On the other hand, there were political groups that called for an inclusive national dialogue before making any decision to postpone the elections and extend the government’s mandates.
Despite all the debate, the HPR endorsed the constitutional interpretation route and referred the matter to the Constitutional Research Council (CCI), a body dependent on the Federation Chamber (HoF) that has the power to interpret the constitution and present its decisions. to the House of Federation (HoF) for approval.
After three hearings of experts and members of the constitutional drafting committee, as well as reviewing documents from 34 experts who sent recommendations from around the world, the ICC decided that the spirit of the constitution allows postponing elections in times of a pandemic or of other health or safety issues and existing executives and legislators must remain in power until elections are held.
Consequently, all attention was focused on preventing the coronavirus pandemic, which has continued to rise in the five months after the SOE’s announcement. As of Thursday, October 1, 2020, 75,368 people were reported to have contracted the virus and 1,205 people had died from it. The Addis Ababa, Oromia and Tigray regions rank first or third in terms of having the highest number of people infected with 39,012, 10,707 and 5,683 infections.
But, especially after Tigray held its regional council elections on September 9, 2020, the narrative that the federal government and the remaining regional governments would not have the legitimacy to remain in power after October 5, 2020 (Meskerem 25, 2013 on the Ethiopian calendar) since the elections were not held in the fifth year since the last in 2015 as stipulated by the constitution, it has become a topic of discussion. In a televised discussion, for example, prominent politicians Lidetu Ayalew of EDP and Jawar Mohammed of the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), both now detained, boldly declared that the current government does not have the legitimacy to rule after October 10, stating that the military and other security institutions are not accountable to the incumbent after that time.
Similarly, in a statement issued through the regional communications department, the Tigray government said that the government must succumb to calls from the Coalition of Federalist Forces seeking a comprehensive discussion in the country by October 5. But when that day comes, the government will not be able to make any laws and its decisions will not be respected.
According to Adane Tadesse, president of EDP, the problem behind October 5 or 10, 2020 is the fact that the mandates of the executive and the HPR end beyond that period. But, she says, the irony in this is that it is the government that insisted on holding the elections based on constitutional provisions, while EDP and others called for their postponement given the various ailments in the country.
“They argued for holding elections when we said that the country was not ready. Now, they are the ones who justified and are defending the postponement of the elections and therefore, the terms of the government, “he told The reporter.
EDP wanted the establishment of a transitional government in the belief that it would make the transition successful and include all political voices.
“As we believed that the legitimacy of the government ends if elections are not held, we have proposed the establishment of a transitional government,” said Adane, adding that, “but this does not mean that everything will collapse overnight when it arrives. the day of the government’s mandate ends. “
The reason for EDP proposing the establishment of a transitional government is because it believes the country has more burning problems that need to be resolved than holding elections, which need to be resolved through discussions and negotiations, Adane said. These include, according to him, finding a middle ground with conflicting and divergent historical narratives, reversing the danger signs raised due to divisions within the government and the ruling party, as well as the TPLF, and maintaining the peace and security of the country. It has reached a level where citizens cannot travel in peace from one place to another.
“Since the constitution itself is the source of our problem, we first have to amend it through discussion,” Adane said.
EDP objected to the government’s path of interpretation of the constitution, citing that the interpreting body, HoF, is full of party members who are prone to influence.
Musa Adem, chairman of the Afar Democratic Party (ADP), said The reporter that his party’s decision to postpone the elections was a wise decision given the pandemic. He even said that he told Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) that the government should remain in power until the pandemic is no longer a threat to public health.
“We are not worried about any crisis because the government mandate ends on October 5 because we had already decided to postpone it. We are concerned about the pandemic, since the number of infected grows day by day, “he said.
Rather, the reluctance of the current Prosperity Party to prevent the spread of the pandemic is concerning, as it still conducts party trainings and well-attended meetings, he complained.
Both Adane and Adem believe that the government’s reactions to the numbers are visible and the show of force from both the federal government and the Tigray region is indicative of this frustration.
“The political tension between the TPLF and the Party of Prosperity presents threats. They have entered the politics of provocation and quarrel. But the country’s problems will not be solved by the military and commandos. The two sides had made the country a field to irritate each other, ”said Adane.
He criticized such displays of military power because even the Derg he did not benefit from it. But organizing discussions is a difficult task to accomplish, he emphasized.
“Military shoulder brushing disintegrates a nation. A civilized policy demands dialogue, not war, ”he said.
Musa also agreed that the narrative related to October 5 or 10, 2020 (Meskerem 25 or 30, 2013 on the Ethiopian calendar) has caused visible frustration within the government. Given that the elections in Tigray and the pressure for the federal government to go ahead with the elections despite the pandemic, they are intended to delegitimize the government and would obviously frustrate the government.
“The military parades we see are signs of frustration. But I don’t think a special event will follow this specific date, “he said.
But he believes that people, who are raising concerns about the end of the term in office on those dates, have strong grounds to say so.
The reporterThe attempt to obtain a comment from the PMO Press Secretary on this matter did not materialize.
While it is time to say what would follow the specific dates, the federal government is concerned given the fragility of the country. NEBE has been ordered to continue with the preparations for the elections that it had halted months ago, although the report from the Ministry of Health (MoH) clearly said that the virus will continue to pose a threat to public health. However, the requirement to conduct the elections as required by the ICC was the announcement that the virus is no longer a threat to public health.
