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Motorists drive past war-damaged buildings in eastern Libya’s main city of Benghazi, where businessmen are desperate for Friday’s “permanent” ceasefire to reopen trade with the government-controlled west of Libya. Unit.
TRIPOLI – Libyans have reacted with a mixture of hope and skepticism after the signing of a nationwide ceasefire agreement aimed at paving the way for a political solution to the country’s crippling conflict.
While observers have welcomed the UN-backed deal, few are under any illusions about the difficulties of turning it into a lasting peace on the ground.
“We have seen a lot of deals in the past,” said Hassan Mahmud al-Obeydi, a 40-year-old high school teacher from the eastern city of Benghazi.
“The important thing is the implementation.”
Friday’s agreement was signed in Geneva by military delegates from the two main warring parties in the North African country, which plunged into violence in 2011 with the NATO-backed revolt that toppled veteran dictator Moamer Kadhafi.
The Tripoli-based unity government and rival forces led by eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar agreed to withdraw from the front lines, begin demobilizing armed groups, and begin integrating them into the state.
Essentially, the agreement also requires the departure of all foreign forces from Libyan soil within three months.
“It is good that the two sides have been prepared for a compromise, but the devil is in the details,” said Peter Millett, a former British ambassador to Libya.
“There are a lot of questions. One key is: will the countries that have been patrons of the military forces in Libya support this commitment? “
The two main camps in Libya’s complex war have received broad support from foreign powers.
Friday’s deal comes four months after Haftar’s Emirati and Russian-backed forces gave up their year-long attempt to seize the capital Tripoli, a battle that killed hundreds of people and displaced tens of thousands.
In June, Haftar withdrew from western Libya in the face of a violent counterattack by forces supporting the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord.
The battle had further deepened bitter mistrust between rival political camps and their military allies, as well as ordinary Libyans.
“The war caused terrible social divisions,” Obeydi said. “It is necessary to work immediately, right now, to rebuild and heal the deep wounds of Libyan society.”
– ‘Ready to react’ –
In the capital Tripoli, 1,000 kilometers (630 miles) to the west, pro-GNA fighter Salim Atouch expressed doubts that the ceasefire would continue.
“We have experience with an earlier deal, which was five days before Haftar’s attack on Tripoli, during which he destroyed the infrastructure of the capital and killed many people,” Atouch said.
“I hope this is not like the previous agreements, which means that we are going back to war. We will comply, but we are ready to react at any time if it is violated.”
The Geneva talks were the military part of a process led by the UN mission in Libya, UNSMIL.
Separate political talks that begin Monday are aimed at creating a new governing body and preparing for elections.
Mohamed Dorda, co-founder and chief consulting officer of geopolitical risk consultancy Libya Desk, said the ceasefire was a positive step that “creates a basis for political talks.”
But, he warned, “Libya needs a security agreement that allows the creation of a government. If we do not deal with the security crisis, we will find ourselves in the same situation in a few years.”
That is a complex challenge in a country gripped by a mosaic of rival militias, as well as foreign mercenaries and jihadist groups.
Observers have warned that those negotiating in Geneva do not necessarily control their armed allies on the ground.
Nor are foreign players in Libya likely to give up their hard-earned influence easily.
Emadeddin Badi, a senior member of the Atlantic Council think tank, warned that Russia and Turkey would want economic dividends from their military interventions.
“It’s naive to make them go away,” he said. “The best scenario is that they win economic concessions and limit their presence on the ground. The worst is that the fighting resumes.”
However, despite all the obstacles, tangible progress has been made in recent days.
This week, the two fields agreed to open national transport links and boost Libya’s vital oil production, hit hard by fighting and blockades. Key oil facilities have already restarted production after months of shutdowns.
Massoud al-Fotmani, a 57-year-old Benghazi man who runs a group of grocery stores, said he hoped the ceasefire would continue.
“The war has caused a terrible economic recession,” he said. “We have lost a lot of money due to the cut of the commercial ties between the east and the west due to the closure of the highways.”
English teacher Mayssoon Khalifa, who works at a private school in Tripoli, echoed his call for lasting peace.
“Many are hopeful but not optimistic,” he said. “I sincerely hope that this agreement will stand. Libya deserves better.”
