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Lebanon’s prime minister-designate, Mustapha Adib, withdrew after failing to form a government in a month of negotiations, in a further blow to a country reeling under the weight of multiple crises.
The talks were thwarted by the question of who would nominate the key cabinet ministers, particularly the finance minister. The government is made up of opposing political blocs, and the powerful Shiite groups Hezbollah and Amal insisted on controlling the Finance Ministry, despite demands from a technocratic government that could
chart a course out of financial ruin.
French President Emmanuel Macron had made French aid conditional on reforms that would reduce the role of the
political blocs that have brought Lebanon to the brink after three decades of corruption and mismanagement.
But efforts to create a government were overshadowed by global conflict. Lebanon found itself squeezed between Washington, which wants to destroy Iran’s economy, and Tehran, which insisted that its Shiite allies retain the Ministry of Finance.
Last month, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on a former finance minister from the parliament’s political bloc, Nabih Berri, hardening the positions of Amal and Hezbollah.
Major reforms of Lebanon’s sclerotic institutions are a precondition for an international bailout to avoid financial collapse, but the dispute makes this less likely.
They have been run as fiefdoms since the end of the civil war, and the country’s ruling class is invested in the patronage networks they generate.
France said Saturday that it will not give up on Lebanon. However, the stalemate is a rejection of Macron, who wants to reaffirm France’s role in the region. He hopes to mark the terms of a recovery and is investing his political capital in imposing new leadership.
Macron’s focus on making Lebanon a country that can shape its own fortune partially ignores regional dynamics. Sources close to the powerful militia-to-political bloc Hezbollah said Iran was not determined to give Macron a victory in Lebanon or allow a government to be formed before the result of the November 3 US elections.
“Hezbollah and Amal are treating the situation in Lebanon as a sports match where they can continue to play in overtime until the tide turns in their favor,” said Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program in Chatham. House. “With the US elections looming and Israel expanding its network of alliances in the region, Iran’s two allies in Lebanon are pushing further on the grounds that accepting a political compromise now would compromise their power later,” she said.
