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Amid falling public confidence in Boris Johnson’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, the UK prime minister on Monday addressed his scientists to prepare the country for “a very challenging winter” and new restrictions on the way of life of the people.
At a briefing from 10 Downing Street, with Mr. Johnson in view, Chris Whitty, the UK’s chief medical adviser, and Patrick Vallance, the country’s chief scientific advisor, presented data to support their claim of that Britain would have to contract the coronavirus “very seriously” over the next six months.
They warned that coronavirus cases could affect nearly 50,000 a day in the UK by mid-October, unless the current trajectory of the disease can be changed, with 200 people dying a day by mid-November.
Johnson spent the day meeting and speaking with ministers and leaders from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. He is expected to draw political conclusions on Tuesday from the grim data dump presented by his advisers, announcing that pubs and restaurants will be forced to close at 10 pm starting Thursday.
Recent polls suggest that more than half of voters believe the government is not handling the pandemic well. The prime minister is now being criticized by some Tory MPs and some in the media for contemplating new national restrictions, amid claims that he is overseeing a “draconian” response.
The Prime Minister sent Professor Whitty and Sir Patrick to respond to the criticism. Professor Whitty acknowledged that there were economic risks to overreacting, but added: “If we do too little, this virus will spiral out of control.”
The advisers’ slides showed that if cases doubled every seven days, as is currently the case, the number of new daily cases could grow from 3,105 on September 15 to 49,000 on October 13.
The predicted daily death toll of 200 in mid-November was well below the peak of the first wave of the virus when there were more than 900 deaths a day in early April, but it is still much higher than the average deaths associated with the winter flu.
Data released during the Downing Street briefing showed how the largest increase in new cases had occurred among young people aged 20-29, followed by those aged 30-39.
But Sir Patrick explained that “the numbers are increasing in all age groups.” Surveys from the Office for National Statistics suggest that 70,000 people in the UK are infected with Covid-19 and some 6,000 people a day contract the disease. The number of positive tests that are recorded daily for the disease is around 4,000.
Advisers fear that Britain is currently on a similar path to France and Spain, where hospitalization rates rose as the disease spread from younger people to older people.
Experts were pleased with the determination of government advisers to dispel the widespread misconceptions about Covid-19 that have been amplified on social media, in particular ideas that the virus is becoming less virulent and has already broken down. built a significant “herd immunity” to the virus. in the United Kingdom.
Sir Patrick said that less than 8 percent of the population had developed antibodies to the virus, according to four different studies during spring and summer, and that the virus was no milder than in April, despite claims by some scientists. about. contrary.
Professor Jackie Cassell, vice dean of the Brighton and Sussex School of Medicine, said the counselors’ intervention would be “welcome and trusted by the public.” In a reference to the previous government’s promises about rapid expansion of testing and the introduction of a tracking application, he added: “There was nothing of the bombast about future world-leading technical solutions that have undermined confidence and They’ve been distracted from the basics in recent weeks and months. “
Sir Mark Walport, who was Sir Patrick’s predecessor as chief scientist, added: “They were very clear about how to dispel myths. There is no evidence that the virus is getting milder or that many people have already been infected. “
Michael Head, senior researcher in global health at the University of Southampton, repeated the message that even those who had developed antibodies when contracting the virus may not be protected against the disease in the long term.
“The idea of herd immunity is fanciful and it is not something that can be part of any public health strategy,” he said.
However, several statisticians were skeptical about Sir Patrick’s worst-case scenario of 50,000 new cases a day in mid-October, if the numbers continue to roughly double each week.
“The number is plausible if the UK as a whole does not respond to the outbreak, but increased compliance and risk avoidance will make it unlikely that it will occur as predicted,” said Daniel Lawson, Senior Lecturer in Statistical Science at the University of Bristol. “The scenario is unlikely to occur, but we still need to pay attention to it.”
Saffron Cordery, deputy executive director of NHS Providers, which represents hospital, mental health, community and ambulance services, said hospital trusts “have learned a lot in recent months in terms of better treatments and how to balance Covid care. and the attention that is not from Covid ”.
But the challenges they faced were “formidable as they work to restore routine services, while dealing with more Covid-19 cases and the additional pressures of winter,” Ms Cordery added.
The first months of the pandemic exposed a widespread shortage of adequate personal protective equipment for staff and testing for Covid-19, shortages that some clinical staff fear have yet to be fully resolved as the NHS moves into the future. complicated winter period.
Donna Kinnair, Secretary General of the Royal College of Nursing, said that nurses in all settings, including in the community and care sectors, had already seen the impact of not being able to access the correct PPE or test where and when they needed it. “This cannot be allowed to happen anymore,” added Dame Donna.
Niall Dickson, executive director of the NHS Confederation, said an effective test and trace system was a priority “as it is concerning that government experts are warning us that the nation will face a bumpy ride for the next six months while people, including health and care staff continue to be disappointed with delays in test results and access is spreading. “
Additional reporting by Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe and Chris Giles
