Israel’s diplomatic advance in the Maghreb faces challenges

Editor’s note: Dr. Wang Jin is a researcher at the Charhar Institute in China and an associate professor at Northwest University in China. The article reflects the opinion of the author and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Morocco and Israel have agreed to normalize ties with each other, making Morocco the fourth Arab state in 2020 to recognize and normalize ties with Israel. In the quid pro quo of Morocco’s normalization efforts with Israel, Washington has proclaimed recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara.

The state of Western Sahara was Donald Trump’s most important bargaining chip in encouraging Morocco’s normalization efforts with Israel. The local population has been fighting for independence since Spain withdrew four decades ago, and there is no nation that recognizes Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara except for Washington’s attitude toward Western Sahara that surprised the United Nations which maintains that the Status of the territory must be determined by UN resolutions. not for Washington.

Morocco and Israel have had low-key ties for decades. Before the establishment of modern Israel in 1948, Morocco was an important home to Jews in North Africa. Although hundreds of thousands of Moroccan Jews moved to Israel after 1948, Moroccan Jews in Israel maintain their traditions and connections, as well as their ties to Morocco. The African nation established unofficial ties with Israel after the 1990s by establishing diplomatic offices in Tel Aviv. The connection was suspended after the second Intifada (Palestinian Uprising) in 2000, but informal ties continued.

It appears that the normalization efforts between Israel and Morocco managed and facilitated by Trump benefit everyone involved in the negotiations. For the Trump administration, Washington hopes to mobilize more Arab states to recognize Israel under the Abraham Accords, which are perceived as Trump’s greatest diplomatic legacy in the Middle East and aim to unite the Arab world and Israel to establish the permanent peace in the Middle East. .

For Morocco, its claim on Western Sahara is respected and recognized by the United States, marking an important diplomatic advance. For Israel, normalization with Morocco means a great diplomatic advance that Morocco becomes the first Arab state in the Maghreb to recognize Israel.

However, the normalization of ties between Morocco and Israel could bring further challenges and uncertainties. On the one hand, Washington’s attitude towards Western Sahara is a serious blow to the local population of Western Sahara who are fighting for independence, and also a challenge to ties between Morocco and other regional states. Western Sahara was occupied by Spanish settlers and the local population led by the Polisario Front continued their resistance since the 1970s.

After Spain’s withdrawal from Western Sahara, Algeria and Mauritania supported the Polisario Front’s claim to achieve independence in Western Sahara. Although Morocco launched a military offensive in 1991 to occupy much of Western Sahara, its territorial claim to Western Sahara has never been recognized by neighboring states and the UN.

With Washington’s recognition of Morocco’s claim on Western Sahara, the opposing views of Algeria, Mauritania and other neighboring states could morph into internal divisions within the African Union and the Arab League, while military clashes could erupt between Morocco and the Polisario Front.

On the other hand, the feeling of oblivion and isolation of the Palestinians would grow stronger. In 2002, the Arab states expressed their willingness to establish ties with Israel on the basis of the precondition of permanent peace between Israel and Palestine.

Since September, four Arab states – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco – have agreed to establish ties with Israel, while the precondition for such a step promised in the 2002 Arab Initiative is being abandoned. For the Palestinians, Israel’s continued construction of Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank squeezes the land out of Palestine for a future state, and the Palestinians could embrace violence against Israel to show their anger and disappointment.

The normalization efforts between Morocco and Israel pushed by Trump could be a great diplomatic victory, but it suggests more uncertainties and even challenges in both the Maghreb and the Middle East.

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