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Observers reflect on ways the Biden-Netanyahu relationship will affect politics and local politics
After what has been a nearly four-year honeymoon with US President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will have to adjust to a new White House under President-elect Joe Biden.
Waiting more than 12 hours, notably longer than most other world leaders, Netanyahu tweeted that he was eager to work with both Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris “to further strengthen the special alliance between the United States and Israel.” The prime minister then quickly added his thanks to President Trump for the friendship he had shown “to the State of Israel and to me personally.”
Since January 2017, the American leader has apparently aligned American policy with Israeli interests.
He withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal signed by former President Barack Obama in 2015, turned his back on Palestinian demands in the West Bank, and in January this year presented a peace plan that largely favored Israeli interests. He also negotiated or accelerated normalization agreements between Jerusalem and three Arab states.
Ram Ben Barak, an opposition member in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, and a former deputy director of Mossad, claims that under President Trump, the US alliance with Israel was based on personal interests, while under the Biden administration , cooperation will be based on shared values.
“There is no doubt that a great change is coming in US policy towards Israel,” Ben Barak told The Media Line.
There is no doubt that a great shift in US policy toward Israel is coming.
“It won’t be for the worse, just different. We will not deal with a president who is a fan of the prime minister, and vice versa, and they will not be part of a mutual survival pact for their own personal reasons. Rather, it will be based on the shared values of both countries, ”he explained.
Ben Barak adds that the outcome of the US presidential elections will certainly have an impact on Israeli politics.
“Netanyahu was hit hard …” he said. “Losing your American friend could slow down your rush to call an election. You will doubt more. But anyway, [Israeli] the elections are near. [They will] be called by February at the latest. “
He was referring to a caustic relationship between Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud and the other component of Israel’s so-called unity government, the centrist Blue and White party.
Eldad Shavit, a retired colonel and currently a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, believes that the changes in the Israeli political scene will be much more nuanced.
“The basic policy will not change,” he told The Media Line.
“Biden is willing to continue [Israel’s] normalization process [with Gulf nations]. The question is if you are willing to pay the price, “said the analyst, referring to what this could cost the US taxpayer in incentives.
Similarly, Shavit, who until recently served as the head of the Investigation Division in the Prime Minister’s Office, suggests tempering expectations regarding the peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
“I don’t think we will see anything anytime soon, especially with the current Palestinian leadership,” he said.
“Washington will handle the situation to prevent any violence from breaking out, perhaps reopen the [US] consulate [in east Jerusalem] or refinance some [Palestinian] institutions that Trump was underfunding, ”he said. “But not much else.”
Washington will handle the situation to prevent any violence from breaking out, perhaps reopening the US consulate in East Jerusalem or refinancing some Palestinian institutions that Trump underfunded. But not much more
Ben Barak speculates that the Israeli-Palestinian dispute will indeed come to the fore again.
“The two-state solution will definitely be more present,” he said. “You will receive a different kind of approach. I think Trump’s policy, in some way, will have helped him: his four years gave the Palestinians some perspective. “
The two-state solution will definitely be more present. You will receive a different kind of focus. I think Trump’s policy, in some way, will have helped him: His four years gave the Palestinians some perspective.
Heather Stone, president of Democrats Abroad-Israel, says that overall, a Biden-Harris administration will be beneficial to Israel.
“President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris are committed to restoring much-needed peace, stability and unity in the United States, as well as its relationships with traditional American allies, including Israel,” he told The Media Line.
“They will strengthen the United States and its alliances, which will directly benefit Israel’s stability and security,” he added.
Another pressing issue for Israel is Iran’s nuclear aspirations.
Two years into his tenure, President Trump announced that he was withdrawing from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. In recent months, Washington has steadily increased economic pressure on the Islamic Republic.
Ben Barak and Shavit predict that the new administration will try to rejoin the JCPOA, the former estimates that the terms of the agreement will have to change, the latter estimates that not all sanctions will be removed.
“[President-elect Biden] will try to return to [accord] with European consent, “said Ben Barak. “It won’t be exactly the same deal. Here too, the Trump years will prove to have helped. The Iranians suffered badly and are ready to come to an understanding. “
President-elect Biden will attempt to return to the agreement with European consent. It won’t be exactly the same deal. Here too, the Trump years will prove to have helped. The Iranians suffered badly and are ready to reach some understandings.
Shavit says, “I think [Biden] will use this lever created by Trump to try to renew the agreement. They will not remove all penalties; you can’t turn back the clock. But perhaps a Biden administration is more open to giving something to the Iranians. [although] That may not be enough. “
After the US elections, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took the opportunity to criticize President Trump, tweeting: “The situation in the United States and what they themselves say about their elections is a spectacle … Regardless From the result, one thing is absolutely clear: the definitive political, civil and moral decline of the American regime. “