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December 20, 2020
Sudan recently reversed its position on resuming its participation in negotiations over the controversial giant hydroelectric dam that Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile, as Khartoum and Egypt continue to express concern about its effects on water flow. of the Nile.
Sudan announced on December 13 that he had reached an agreement with Ethiopia that negotiations on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam would resume in a week. The announcement came during Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s visit to Addis Ababa, where he met with his Ethiopian counterpart, Abiy Ahmed.
On December 14, Celchi Bekele, Ethiopia’s Minister of Water, Irrigation and Energy, visited Sudan, where he met with Sudan’s Minister of Irrigation and Water, Yasser Abbas, to discuss resuming tripartite negotiations on the dam.
The two ministers agreed to resume negotiations and give a greater role to African Union experts to allow them to converge the views of the three countries under the African Union umbrella.
Since June 26, the African Union has sponsored arduous but unsuccessful negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. The negotiations were conducted in the presence of experts and observers from the African Union, the United States, the World Bank and the European Union.
However, Abbas backed off on December 15 on the agreement to resume talks, telling a press conference in Khartoum that there was no specific date for the resumption of negotiations. He attributed the delay to the fact that both his country and Egypt want to agree on a new negotiation methodology with Ethiopia. He said his country wants a different methodology for the negotiations and that Sudan will refrain from participating unless there is a new approach.
Abbas said his country agrees with Ethiopia on the need to give African Union experts a bigger role in the dam talks, but ruled out a bilateral agreement between Sudan and Ethiopia that would exclude Egypt. He said there is still a possibility for the African Union to play a role in the negotiations to reach a tripartite agreement.
Ahmed al-Mufti, a Sudanese expert on international water law, told Al-Monitor that Abbas confirmed the rapprochement with Ethiopia, but did not provide details.
Mufti said recent Sudanese measures are giving Ethiopia more time to make the status quo a fait accompli and unilaterally implement the power generation phase in June 2021 and then the second phase of filling the dam in July 2021.
Sudan boycotted the latest round of negotiations with Egypt and Ethiopia took place on November 21. It was the first time Khartoum had refused to attend the negotiations.
Sudan rejects the negotiating methods between the three countries, saying they have proved useless in recent rounds.
The African Union has no objection to expanding the role of its experts in the negotiations. African Union Commission Chairman Moussa Faki said in a statement on December 10 that he hoped parties to the crisis would allow the African Union to help resolve outstanding disputes.
On November 4, the three countries could not agree on the role of experts in the negotiations or on the methodology, paths and timing of the talks. Egypt opposed a detailed Sudanese proposal on giving a greater role to African Union experts to converge views and propose compromises. Meanwhile, Ethiopia agreed to maximize the role of African Union experts and put forward a proposal similar to that of Sudan.
Experts who spoke to Al-Monitor questioned the ability of the African Union experts to come up with a compromise formula acceptable to all three parties, claiming that some experts may be biased. This comes amid concerns that Ethiopia will take advantage of the dispute between Cairo and Khartoum and prolong the negotiations.
Last year, the United States tried, at the request of Egypt, to mediate the crisis by organizing four months of talks in Washington with the participation of the World Bank. However, the negotiations collapsed in February; Egypt unilaterally signed a draft agreement on the filling and operation of the dam, while Ethiopia did not attend the signing and Sudan refused to sign.
Cairo says the dam could negatively affect its annual share of the Nile River, which it relies on for more than 95% of its freshwater needs. About 85% of the Nile’s water comes from the Blue Nile, where the $ 4.6 billion dam is being built. Meanwhile, Addis Ababa says the dam it is vital to greasing the wheels of your economy and lifting millions of people out of poverty.
Sudanese officials say they believe the dam can regulate the waters of the Blue Nile and generate electricity that Sudan can benefit from. However, it seeks assurances about its safe and proper operation to preserve its own dams, including the Roseires dam, the largest in Sudan.
There are outstanding technical issues regarding the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, including how it would function during the dry years; How much water would Addis Ababa release to the two downstream countries? There are also pending legal questions, such as whether the agreement and its dispute resolution mechanism should be binding on the parties, which is what Egypt and Sudan are calling for.
Mohamed Abdel Ati, Egyptian minister for water resources and irrigation, told Saudi Asharq news service on December 12 that if the three countries show political will, his country is ready to resume negotiations at any time.
Hani Raslan, head of the Sudan and Nile Basin Countries Unit at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, ruled out that any rapprochement between Sudan and Ethiopia or coordination efforts regarding the dam negotiations would materialize. , especially amid growing tensions on the border between the two countries.
Raslan told Al-Monitor that the escalation occurring on the Sudan-Ethiopia border indicates that the relationship between the two sides has turned tepid in the wake of Sudan’s one-sided honeymoon with Ethiopia during the dam negotiations.
The Sudanese army announced on December 15 that its forces were ambushed by Ethiopian forces and militias during a security patrol in the Jabal Abutiour area of Gedaref state, adjacent to the border with Ethiopia. Four forces of the Sudanese army, including an officer, Were killed in the incident.
But the prime minister of Ethiopia said December 17 that the incident would not affect his country’s relations with Sudan.
The Sudanese newspaper accused the Ethiopian army of being involved in the incident.
Raslan disagreed with Sudan’s call to give African Union experts a bigger role and Khartoum’s refusal to resume talks. “The Sudanese negotiating delegation should have announced the suspension of its participation in the negotiations as a result of Ethiopian intransigence in order to reach a satisfactory agreement for the three countries,” he said.
When asked about the future of the negotiations, if they resume, Raslan said: “Ethiopia will issue the same old positions that it has been issuing for a whole decade to prolong the negotiations and impose a fait accompli. Unfortunately, the Sudanese negotiating delegation has always been a partner in such efforts. “
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