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- The most dangerous humanitarian emergencies of 2021 are nearly all long-standing and neglected crises like Afghanistan, Syria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which remain highly volatile after years or decades of crises.
- These 20 countries represent only 10% of the world’s population, but they represent 85% of people in humanitarian need.
- A new analysis by experts from the International Rescue Committee (IRC) shows that Yemen is the country with the highest risk of humanitarian catastrophe in 2021, for the third year in a row, followed by Afghanistan, Syria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia.
- The famine threatens four countries in the top ten on the watch list: Yemen, Burkina Faso, northeastern Nigeria and South Sudan.
- Measures to contain the pandemic are leaving behind women, who face devastating damage to economic opportunities, schooling and access to health care in these crisis countries.
- The triple threat of conflict, climate change and COVID-19 is driving crises in almost every Watch List country.
- IRC is responding to crises in 18 of the 20 Watch List countries and offers life-saving health, protection, education and economic recovery programs.
New York, NY, December 16, 2020 – Today, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) released its annual Emergency Watch List highlighting 20 devastating humanitarian crises expected to further deteriorate in 2021. Ongoing conflict exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and change climate have led to unprecedented emergencies around the world. . As several countries face historic levels of hunger and are on the brink of a pending famine, IRC calls on world leaders to take action now, before decades of hard-earned progress in reducing poverty, hunger and diseases are lost or even reversed.
David Miliband, IRC President and CEO, said: “2020 will be one of the most turbulent years in history, but next year will be remembered for the way we help or reject those who suffer the most.” it should serve as a wake-up call to policy makers, government leaders and concerned citizens around the world about the cost of neglecting humanitarian crises and how they need urgent international attention. More than 235 million people need humanitarian aid and more than 80 million people are displaced from their homes. The world continues to look the other way as we live in the era of impunity in which governments, dictators, generals and militias ignore the laws of war, knowing that they will never be held responsible for their abuses. The most serious and devastating crises such as Afghanistan, Syria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have been reeling for years or even decades, and are expected to get even worse in 2021.
The triple threat of conflict, COVID-19 and climate change are dramatically worsening an already dire situation for people living in conflict-affected countries. Working on 18 of the 20 crises on this year’s Watch List, and in nearly 20 other countries around the world, IRC sees the impacts of this every day as we work tirelessly to help people survive and rebuild their lives. lives. Women and girls are disproportionately affected by all aspects of the conflict, as we see an increase in violence against women, early and forced marriage, loss of income and educational opportunities. While we are witnessing historic levels of displacement, aid agencies such as IRC are increasingly under attack and face obstacles set by parties to the conflict that prevent them from reaching those most in need.
Without action, conflicts risk spreading across borders with serious humanitarian consequences. We risk repeating these same mistakes now with emerging crises like those in Ethiopia and Mozambique. With the alarming findings of Watchlist 2021, the IRC is calling on world leaders to fund front-line responses to the triple threat of conflict, COVID-19 and climate change, so that all actors urgently comply with the Secretary-General’s call. of the UN for a global ceasefire. and for those with influence to push for humanitarian access to those most in need. This is only the minimum to begin to address the plight of millions of civilians highlighted by the Watch List. “
More Highlights from the 2021 Watch List:
- Deaths and illnesses caused by the pandemic’s health impacts not caused by COVID may exceed those caused by COVID-19 itself.
- Loss of livelihoods increases food insecurity and could trigger multiple famines in 2021, particularly in Yemen, Burkina Faso, northeastern Nigeria and South Sudan.
- Long-standing conflicts in places like Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are driving the largest increases in humanitarian needs. The number of people in need in Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo has increased by 385% and 275% respectively since 2015. It is worrying that Watchlist reveals that many of these states are at risk of an even more violent 2021.
- Measures to contain the pandemic are leaving women behind, while increasing the risks they face. Women and girls represent more than 70% of the chronically hungry.
- Conflicts are increasingly complex. Currently, a fifth of conflicts involve more than ten actors and two-thirds involve at least three parties, complicating the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
- The countries on the watch list are the most dangerous places for humanitarian workers: since 2016, 94% of all humanitarian workers killed, 84% of humanitarian workers injured and 98% of humanitarian workers abducted have been in the countries on this year’s list.
- Humanitarian access and action are increasingly threatened, as humanitarian responses are threatened by bureaucratic obstacles.
- The global increase in the number of conflicts is driven by a 600% increase in internationalized civil conflicts, those crises that involve a foreign actor, since 1990.
- The influence of non-state armed groups, including criminal gangs, communal militias, militant groups and more, in crisis situations is growing. From Afghanistan to Colombia to Mozambique, armed non-state actors have significant influence over crises in all countries on the 2021 Watch List.
- Wars are increasingly being fought without respect for international humanitarian law, causing direct damage to the civilian population and critical infrastructure.
The challenges are immense, but there are practical steps that the international community can and must take. IRC urges world leaders for a new political approach to address the trends highlighted by Watchlist 2021:
- Target those who are at risk of being left behind. Displaced populations, hard-to-reach populations, women and other vulnerable populations must be included in all aspects of humanitarian responses, from national health systems to social safety nets and the distribution of an eventual vaccine.
- Get to the front in crisis-affected contexts. Provide more humanitarian funding and direct more funds to front-line responders, who are on the ground and ready to scale to meet growing needs.
- Prioritize diplomacy to support humanitarian action by removing obstacles to humanitarian action.
- Strengthen multilateral systems to respond to the triple threat of conflict, COVID-19 and climate change.
- Breaking the cycle of impunity for damage to civilians by restoring accountability for violations of international humanitarian law.
The watch list is divided into a ranked Top Ten and an unranked bottom half. The top ten countries are where we assess that there is a higher risk of deterioration leading to the most serious emergencies in 2021:
1. Yemen
2. Afghanistan
3. Syria
4. Democratic Republic of the Congo
5. Ethiopia
6. Burkina Faso
7. South Sudan
8. Nigeria
9. Venezuela
10. Mozambique
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Cameroon
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Central African Republic
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Chad
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Colombia
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Lebanon
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Mali
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Niger
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Palestine
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Somalia
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Sudan
Methodology
The watch list is based on 85 quantitative and qualitative measures, including insights from IRC’s 30,000 employees and volunteers in more than 40 countries around the world.
