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Somalis fear that the US decision to withdraw troops from their country will be seen as a victory for militants linked to Al Qaeda who have wreaked havoc there for years and sow the potential for further chaos at a particularly sensitive time for Somalia. and the region.
The Somali presidential elections are scheduled for just two months; war breaks out in neighboring Ethiopia; and the militants, from al-Shabab, remain strong despite years of raids and US-led drone strikes.
The timing of the Pentagon’s announcement on Friday, some Somalis say, is terrible.
“The fight against global terrorism is still ongoing, and we must still win the battle for peace and security for them to prevail,” said Ayub Ismail Yusuf, a Somali senator, who called the US decision “untimely” in Twitter “We must not give up on our successes.”
At Mogadishu University, Abdullahi, a 23-year-old political science student, said he feared al-Shabab could now “attack without fear” in the capital.
“Now its leaders can easily move from one place to another with little threat,” he added, calling for his full name to be withheld to protect against possible retaliation. He lives near the charred remains of an ice cream parlor bombed by an al-Shabab suicide bomber on November 27, an attack that killed seven people.
The Pentagon said it will “reposition” some of the estimated 700 US troops in Somalia to other parts of East Africa, likely Kenya and Djibouti, and continue to carry out raids on al-Shabab and a smaller group of Islamic State group fighters in the north. . Somalia from bases in neighboring countries.
The drone strikes, which have killed numerous senior and mid-level al-Shabab commanders, as well as dozens of civilians, will continue.
President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed of Somalia did not immediately react to the US decision, announced Friday night as part of President Donald Trump’s push to end what he calls America’s never-ending wars before leaving the post on January 20. mid-January, they are fully justified is still unclear.
What seems certain, however, is that most of the changes will be made by Danab, an elite Somali force that the US military took under its wing after its formation in 2013. Since then, US soldiers have trained and armed Somali commandos, whose number has risen to about 1,000 and has often accompanied them in raids against al-Shabab.
Now Danab will be largely alone.
Colonel Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh, who was in command of Danab from 2016 to 2019, said he hoped the United States would continue to finance and arm the elite force. But the crucial “advise and assist” role of the United States – the Americans who help Somali officers plan raids and accompany them to shootings – will not be easily replaced, he said.
“You can launch and organize operations from countries like Djibouti and Kenya, but it is not the same as being in the country,” Sheikh said. “You can’t train a force remotely.”
Even with years of US support, Somalia has only been able to partially mitigate al-Shabab’s power.
The group controls swaths of southern Somalia, where its fighters ambush and bomb Somalia soldiers and African Union peacekeepers. A recent US government report noted that al-Shabab was involved in 440 violent events in Somalia between July and September, the highest number in two years.
However, US and Somali pressure has managed to stop sophisticated large-scale attacks in Mogadishu, said Omar Mahmood, an analyst for Somalia at International Crisis Group, a conflict research organization.
Somalis were supposed to be standing on their own two feet next year. An international plan drawn up in 2017 called for the Somali security forces to operate independently by 2021. That will not happen.
Danab, the main counterterrorism strike force, is still heavily reliant on US support and has reached only about a third of its planned size.
The US withdrawal “could have a pretty big impact,” Mahmood said. “The role of American adviser is invaluable to Danab. This raises concerns that it could continue to develop. “
Danab is not the main pillar of Somalia’s security. The government relies heavily on a 19,000-strong African Union peacekeeping force, although that has also been affected by uncertainty due to the outbreak of civil conflict in Ethiopia, which contributes around 4,000 troops.
America’s withdrawal from Somalia may have been inevitable. President-elect Joe Biden has also pledged to withdraw US troops from “wars for good,” open counterterrorism missions that proliferated after 2001.
But Somalia experts warned that Trump’s decision to disconnect now, as Somalia faces parliamentary elections this month and a presidential vote in February, was a recipe for chaos and maximum damage.
“It’s typical of the Trump administration’s incoherent policy toward Somalia,” said Matt Bryden, strategic adviser at Sahan Research, a group that specializes in the Horn of Africa. “This is an incomprehensible decision at a time when governments are likely to change in both Somalia and the United States. It would have made more sense to wait a few months.”
The Pentagon’s assurances that the United States will continue to attack al-Shabab from bases outside the country, he said, “seems like a valiant attempt to put lipstick on a pig.”
However, other experts said that it is never a good time to leave a fragile country like Somalia.
“It’s probably a good thing if the US relationship with Somalia is not predominantly a few hundred soldiers,” said Brittany Brown, former Africa adviser to the National Security Council in the Obama and Trump administrations and now chief of staff for the international crisis. . Group. “But like everything with Trump, it has been executed so badly.”
The Somalia turmoil will not be solved by drone strikes or military incursions, he said. “It will not stop until Somalia has a government that can provide services to its people. Until then, al-Shabab will remain a threat. “
The presidential election itself faces some uncertainty. The incumbent, Mohamed, has been at odds with Somalia’s regional leaders, and the opposition fears he may try to manipulate the vote.
Without American troops, the Somalis can still depend on other foreign allies like Qatar, which provides cash and humanitarian aid, and Turkey, which aims to train some 10,000 regular soldiers.
But for Danab’s force, the US withdrawal will constitute a “wake-up call,” said Sheikh, its former commander. “They realize that they can no longer depend on outside help.”
It can also make the force more prone to political interference, not to mention the corruption that has ruined other Somali security units. And America’s departure may hit morale, raising questions about America’s commitment to its fight.
“You will lose a little confidence,” Sheikh said. “And it will be very difficult to get it back.”
