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NAIROBI, Kenya – Somalis fear that the United States’ decision to withdraw troops from their country will be seen as a victory for the Qaeda-linked militants who have wreaked havoc there for years, sowing the potential for further chaos at one point. especially sensitive for Somalia and the region.
The Somali presidential elections are scheduled in just two months, war is raging in neighboring Ethiopia, and Shabab militants remain strong despite years of US-led raids and drone strikes.
The timing of Friday’s Pentagon announcement, some Somalis say, is terrible.
“The fight against global terrorism is still ongoing and we must still win the battle for peace and security to prevail,” said Ayub Ismail Yusuf, a Somali senator, calling the US decision “untimely” on Twitter. . “We must not give up on our successes.”
At Mogadishu University, Abdullahi, a 23-year-old political science student, said he feared Shabab could now “attack without fear” in the capital.
“Now its leaders can easily move from one place to another with little threat,” he added, calling for his full name to be withheld to protect against possible retaliation. He lives near the charred remains of an ice cream parlor bombed by a suicide bomber Shabab on November 27, an attack that killed seven people.
The Pentagon says it will “reposition” some of the estimated 700 US troops in Somalia to other parts of East Africa – likely Kenya and Djibouti – and continue to carry out raids against Shabab and a smaller group of Islamic State fighters in northern Somalia from bases in neighboring countries.
Drone strikes, which have killed numerous senior and mid-level Shabab commanders, as well as dozens of civilians, will continue.
President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed of Somalia did not immediately react to the US decision, announced Friday night as part of President Trump’s campaign to end what he calls America’s never-ending wars before leaving the post on January 20. Whether the fears about the withdrawal, which is expected in mid-January, are fully justified is still unclear.
What seems certain, however, is that the brunt of the changes will be carried out by Danab, an elite Somali force that the US military took under its wing after its formation in 2013. Since then, US soldiers have trained and armed the Somali commandos, whose number has increased to about 1,000 and has often accompanied them in raids against the Shabab.
Now, Danab will be largely alone.
Colonel Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh, who was in command of Danab from 2016 to 2019, said he hoped the United States would continue to finance and arm the elite force. But the crucial “advising and assisting” role of the United States – the Americans helping Somali officers plan raids and accompanying them to shootings – will not be easily replaced, he said.
“You can launch and organize operations from countries like Djibouti and Kenya, but it is not the same as being in the country,” said Colonel Sheikh. “You can’t train a force remotely.”
Even with years of US support, Somalia has only been able to partially mitigate the power of the Shabab.
The group controls swaths of southern Somalia, where its fighters ambush and bomb Somali soldiers and African Union peacekeepers. A recent report from the US government noted that Shabab was involved in 440 violent events in Somalia between July and September, the highest number in two years.
However, US and Somali pressure has managed to stop sophisticated large-scale attacks in Mogadishu, said Omar Mahmood, an analyst for Somalia at International Crisis Group, a conflict research organization.
The Somalis were supposed to be on their own feet next year. An international plan drawn up in 2017 called for Somali security forces to operate independently by 2021. That will not happen.
Danab, the main counterterrorism strike force, still relies heavily on American support and has reached only about a third of its planned size.
The US withdrawal “could have a pretty big impact,” Mahmood said. “The role of American adviser is invaluable to Danab. This raises concerns that it could continue to develop. “
Danab is not the main pillar of Somalia’s security. The government relies heavily on a 19,000-strong African Union peacekeeping force, although that has also been plagued by uncertainty due to the outbreak of civil conflict in Ethiopia, which contributes around 4,000 troops.
The US withdrawal from Somalia may have been inevitable. President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. has also pledged to withdraw US troops from “wars forever,” open-ended counterterrorism missions that proliferated after 2001.
But Somalia experts warned that Trump’s decision to disconnect now, as Somalia faces parliamentary elections this month and a presidential vote in February, was a recipe for chaos and maximum damage.
“It’s typical of the Trump administration’s incoherent policy toward Somalia,” said Matt Bryden, a strategic adviser at Sahan Research, a group that specializes in the Horn of Africa. “This is an incomprehensible decision at a time when governments are likely to change in both Somalia and the United States. It would have made more sense to wait a few months.”
The Pentagon’s assurances that the United States will continue to attack the Shabab from bases outside the country, he said, “looks like a valiant attempt to put lipstick on a pig.”
However, other experts said that it is never a good time to leave a fragile country like Somalia.
“It’s probably a good thing if the US relationship with Somalia is not predominantly a few hundred soldiers,” said Brittany Brown, former adviser for Africa to the National Security Council in the Obama and Trump administrations and now chief of staff for the international crisis. . Group. But like everything with Trump, it has been so poorly executed.
Somalia’s turmoil will not be resolved by drone strikes or military incursions, he said. “It will not stop until Somalia has a government that can provide services to its people. Until then, Al Shabab will remain a threat. “
The presidential election itself faces some uncertainty. The incumbent, Mr. Mohamed, has been at odds with Somalia’s regional leaders, and the opposition fears he may try to manipulate the vote.
Without American troops, the Somalis can still depend on other foreign allies like Qatar, which provides cash and humanitarian aid, and Turkey, which aims to train some 10,000 regular soldiers.
But for Danab’s force, the US withdrawal will constitute a “wake-up call,” said Colonel Sheikh, his former commander. “They realize that they can no longer depend on outside help.”
It can also make the force more prone to political interference, not to mention the corruption that has ruined other Somali security units. And America’s departure may hit morale, raising questions about America’s commitment to its fight.
“You will lose a bit of confidence,” Colonel Sheikh said. “And it will be very difficult to get it back.”
Hussein Mohamed contributed reporting from Mogadishu, Somalia.
