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For three years, between 2015 and early 2018, there were popular protests in Ethiopia, but particularly in the two largest regions of the country: Oromia and Amhara.
Popular unrest was fueled by the 27-year marginalization of most ethnic groups, massive corruption that bankrupted the state, and a federal ethnic arrangement that was being used to sow ethnic tensions and violence.
2018 was a decisive year for the country. At the beginning of the year, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned after six years in office. His resignation came as a surprise to the establishment. Abiy Ahmed was appointed prime minister after replacing Desalegn as leader of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front. He quickly began a process of political reforms.
Abiy called for peace, unity and economic prosperity. He also freed tens of thousands of political prisoners.
But the most profound changes he made were political. He dissolved the ruling coalition, which had ruled Ethiopia since 1991, and replaced it with the new Prosperity Party.
The coalition consisted of four parties representing the regions of Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, and southern Ethiopia. But the dominant party was the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The Tigray front dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades. He led the rebel movements in the late 1980s that helped topple the regime led by Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam in 1991.
The collapse of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front meant the disappearance of the dominant role of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in Ethiopian politics. Not surprisingly, he reacted badly to Abiy’s reforms. These tensions came to a head when Ethiopia’s House of Representatives postponed the national elections, citing Covid-19.
The Tigrayan regional government decided to go ahead with a local survey. This was a clear violation of the decision made in Addis Ababa. In addition, the Tigray front created its own electoral board. This was contrary to the constitution, which states that only the national electoral board can organize local or national elections. Six weeks after the elections, the tension between the Abiy administration and the Tigray front turned into open conflict. The confrontation began when the front attacked bases of the national army in Tigray.
The front claims that it is acting to protect Ethiopia’s federal-ethnic government system. He sees the Abiy Prosperity Party as a vehicle to create a centralized form of government and dismantle the federal arrangement.
Restless federation
Abiy’s attempts to repair the country’s social fabric included creating an inclusive political environment and media space. He also oversaw the return of once armed Ethiopian government rebel groups from foreign bases to seek peaceful political participation.
But the lack of peace and security continued to plague the country. Inter-ethnic clashes and internal displacement of citizens continued unabated.
The government blamed the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Oromo Liberation Army, the only two liberation fronts in the country, for much of the instability.
In particular, the Oromo Liberation Army, one of the groups that returned home to pursue a peaceful path of struggle, was accused of taking up arms again in western Ethiopia, targeting the Amhara ethnic group.
The government also accused the TPLF of aiding the rogue group.
For many Ethiopians, the violence was proof that Abiy and his administration had shown too much patience, costing the country its stability.
Tensions reached new heights when the TPLF, which controls the northernmost region of Tigrayan, attacked the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front claimed that the first attack came from the national defense force itself. However, government tests and the front’s own admission showed that this was not the case.
While the immediate cause of the current conflict in northern Tigray was the attack on a national army base, the underlying cause of the Ethiopian army’s assault on Tigray remains the relentless attempts by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front to undermine the reforms. Abiy’s policies and leadership.
There is also evidence that it tried to incite ethnic violence by using its proxies, such as the Oromo Liberation Army, to undermine Abiy’s authority.
Furthermore, before the conflict began, the TPLF had rejected Addis Ababa’s peaceful proposals for almost two years.
Openings
The federal government has made several attempts to resolve differences. This has included the use of traditional dispute resolution methods. For example, Addis Ababa sent Ethiopian elders, known as shimagles in Amharic, to start a political dialogue.
The Islamic and Orthodox clergy of Ethiopia, along with other Christian denominations and traditional beliefs, have also been called upon to contribute to the peaceful resolution of tensions between the regions and the federal government.
In addition, the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Ethiopian Parliament, established a peace and reconciliation commission. He also tried to minimize tensions by traveling to Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region.
However, the commission delegates were rejected. In doing so, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front showed contempt for the olive branches of the Abiy government.
An end in sight?
Today, Ethiopians fear the conflict will be protracted. Abiy has also made her goals clear.
The federal government has established an interim administration to replace the Tigray People’s Liberation Front once the conflict is over.
The conflict threatens to be costly. Ethiopians from Tigray are fleeing to neighboring Sudan as civilians are caught in the crossfire. The development infrastructure is being destroyed. The massacre committed by the retreating Tigray forces was the most heartbreaking of all.
The fears of a humanitarian crisis are justified. The government is expected to open a humanitarian corridor to provide access for humanitarian workers.
In my opinion, a political settlement through dialogue and negotiation could be a solution to the conflict. However, at this point, the likelihood of a negotiated settlement seems unlikely given that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front admitted firing rockets into the neighboring Amhara region, further enraging federal authorities.
The front also admitted to firing missiles at the Eritrean capital Asmara, an act that could prolong the fighting.
Yohannes Gedamu, Professor of Political Science, University of Georgia Gwinnett
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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