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Oct 11, 2020
Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have been involved for nearly a decade in open conflict over the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Addis Ababa is building on the Blue Nile to generate hydroelectric power.
More recently, Ethiopia decided to ban flights over the dam for safety reasons, the director general of the Ethiopian Civil Aviation Authority Wesenyeleh Hunegnaw told Reuters on October 5.
Hunegnaw said the decision is aimed at securing the dam. But analysts say they believe the move will deepen the already existing dispute over the dam. Ethiopia hopes the project will make the country an even bigger electricity exporter.
On the same day, Hunegnaw told the BBC that it was common for the country to ban flights over major projects.
Meanwhile, Cairo expresses concern that the dam could negatively affect the flow of its annual share of water from the Nile River, which meets more than 95% of Egypt’s freshwater needs.
It is noteworthy that 85% of the Nile’s water comes from the Blue Nile, on which the more than $ 4 billion dam is being built. Addis Ababa consider the prey to be vital to grease your economic wheels and combat the poverty suffered by millions of people.
While Sudan believes the dam can bring some benefits by regulating the waters of the Blue Nile and by providing electricity, it wants assurances regarding the safe and proper operation of the dam, as the country seeks to preserve its own dams, including the Roseires dam. , the largest in Sudan.
The flight embargo on the controversial dam came days after the Ethiopian air force commander, Major General Yilma Merdasa, warned against any military aggression against the dam.
Merdasa said in an interview with Ethiopian TV on September 30 that her country is fully prepared to defend the dam, also known as GERD, from any possible attack.
William Davison, Senior Analyst at International Crisis Group, told Al-Monitor: “It is not yet clear why Ethiopia made this decision, but it is clear that Ethiopia considers that there is a security threat to the GERD based on the positions and statements issued by Egypt “.
However, an Egyptian official told Al-Monitor, on condition of anonymity, that “the Egyptian political leadership is confident that the GERD crisis will be resolved at the negotiating table.”
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ruled out that his country would resort to a military solution to the dam crisis. He said on July 28 that the military option is not a solution to this dispute and that negotiations are the only way to resolve the crisis.
Hamdi Bakhit, a member of the Parliamentary Committee for Defense and National Security, told Al-Monitor that Ethiopia’s flight embargo on the dam is a mere trick before the international community. Bakhit added that the embargo is a preemptive threat meant to accuse Egypt of intending to use military force to end the conflict.
According to article 152 of the constitution, the Egyptian army needs the approval of the House of Representatives to declare war or send troops on combat missions outside the borders.
Bakhit said: “What prompted Ethiopia to make this decision is that it lives in a state of internal instability as it suffers from ethnic conflicts, and the regime is trying to mobilize internal public opinion around a national cause exemplified by the GERD “.
The dam crisis further escalated after Ethiopia announced in June that it intended to complete the first phase of filling the dam regardless of whether an agreement had been reached with Egypt and Sudan. This prompted Egypt and Sudan to turn to the Security Council in an attempt to get Addis Ababa back to negotiations and halt any unilateral steps before a general agreement was reached on the rules for filling and operating the dam. Meanwhile, the diplomatic tension between Egypt and Ethiopia degenerated into an exchange of military threats.
While the African Union managed to bring the three countries back to the negotiating table on June 26, after an African summit attended by the leaders of the three countries, they were all surprised by the announcement of Addis Ababa on July 21. that the rains had helped him complete the first phase of filling the dam’s reservoir with 4.9 billion cubic meters of water. Still, the three countries continued to negotiate.
Ethiopia’s President Sahle-Work Zewde told parliament on October 5 that her country is looking to complete the second phase of filling the dam in the next 12 months.
In September, the United States decided to reduce some of its aid to Ethiopia due to US concerns about Addis Ababa’s unilateral decision to fill the dam before a deal is reached.
In February, US-mediated talks in the presence of the World Bank failed when Egypt unilaterally signed an agreement involving mechanisms to fill and operate the dam when Ethiopia failed to show up for a meeting on the issue.
On August 28, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan failed to reach an agreement in their latest marathon round of negotiations mediated by the African Union with the participation of experts and observers from the European Union and the United States. The three countries have yet to set a date for the resumption of negotiations.
Egypt and Sudan are seeking to reach a legally binding agreement regarding the dam, provided that it includes an effective and binding mechanism to resolve future disputes before the dam is operational. Ethiopia, however, insists on an agreement that includes non-binding guidelines.
The technical issues in dispute are mainly related to the operation of the dam during the dry years, amid concerns that the amount of water Addis Ababa would release to Egypt and Sudan would decrease.
In a Sept. 25 speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Sisi warned of the repercussions of the faltering negotiations between the three countries. Sisi said that continued hesitation in the negotiations will have negative repercussions on the stability and development of the region. He called on the international community to play its role and urged all parties to show flexibility in the negotiations to reach a satisfactory solution for all.
Davison said: “No other diplomatic dispute will be able to help the negotiations. What is needed in the end is for the three parties to reach the concessions they want to make with respect to pending legal and technical disputes, and then try again to reach a consensus on the rules of filling and operation.
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