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Major changes to Hong Kong’s electoral laws are expected this week when senior officials gather in Beijing for the annual meeting of the Chinese parliament.
The “Two Sessions”, as they are known in Chinese, include the mostly ceremonial meeting of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference which is convened on March 4, followed by the more powerful National People’s Congress, which begins the next day.
Delayed by COVID-19, last year’s event took place in May and saw the adoption of comprehensive national security legislation for Hong Kong that was announced as necessary to “restore stability” after massive protests in 2019, but that has led to a rapid repression in the territory. pro-democracy movement, including elected politicians, since it was imposed on June 30 last year.
On Sunday, Hong Kong charged 47 democracy activists with “subversion” for organizing and participating in an unofficial primary to help the pro-democracy camp choose their best candidates for elections to the city’s semi-democratic legislature, which were later held. delayed.
Media mogul Jimmy Lai is also being held awaiting trial on national security charges for alleged “collusion with foreign forces,” while in November four pro-democracy lawmakers were disqualified from their positions and charged with “endangering national security “.
But more arrests and disqualifications are expected in the fallout from the NPC, which is expected to bring more political change in the former British colony.
“In the past year, we have seen Beijing taking advantage of some of the global distraction caused by the pandemic to settle scores on various fronts and try to punish figures who have interfered in its efforts to gradually align Hong Kong with mainland cities. ”Said Jeffrey Wasserstrom, professor of Chinese history at the University of California, Irvine and author of Vigil: Hong Kong on the Brink.
The move to accuse 47 politicians and pro-democracy activists of “subversion” brought hundreds to West Kowloon District Court this week to show their support. [Jerome Favre/EPA]
Media mogul Jimmy Lai Chee-ying, founder of Apple Daily, walks to a prison van to address court, after being charged under national security law, in Hong Kong, China, on December 12. 2020. REUTERS / Tyrone Siu“One of the reasons this is all so chilling is that it suggests that, in Beijing’s view now, there is no tolerance even for moderate actions and they want to limit the space even for non-violent expressions of opinion as much as they can.” , He said. .
‘Patriots’
Hints of what is to come have already appeared in recent weeks from Xia Baolong, Beijing’s top official in Hong Kong and Macau, who has said in recent speeches that only “patriots” should rule the former British colony and then seize. doubled down with a seminar on the subject in Shenzhen, according to Chinese state media.
Other signals come from interviews in state media with leading figures who have called on Hong Kong to close electoral “loopholes,” said Julia G Bowie, editor of the Party Watch Initiative at the Washington-based China Center for Advanced Research. DC.
“The central argument is that ‘loopholes’ in the electoral system have allowed non-patriotic people to hold elected office in Hong Kong, sometimes in collusion with foreign anti-China forces,” Bowie said.
“Xia Baolong set standards for evaluating who is a patriot, which I hope will form the basis of an evaluation system to disqualify candidates who are deemed unpatriotic. It’s easy to see how these rather nebulous standards could be used to disqualify anyone who considers themselves hostile to the central government. “
With the Hong Kong Legislative Council election now scheduled for September, after a year delay due to COVID-19, Beijing can hope to avoid the embarrassment of the November 2019 district council elections, which were widely viewed as a referendum in support of democracy. movement after months of sometimes violent protests.
“In terms of elections, it is important to note that, as limited as Hong Kong’s democratic institutions have always been, and they were very weak before the [1997 UK] handover and they have never been firm – the elections have provided a way for candidates to raise issues and sometimes for voters to express their discontent with the authorities and their support for the movements, ”Wasserstrom said.
“The District Council election in November 2019 was a landslide victory for the pro-democracy candidates, even though Beijing hoped, and its local representatives hoped, that the fact that some protesters had participated in violent actions would alienate to the voters of the movement. Similarly, the latest wave of arrests has primarily targeted people who participated in grassroots primaries, who did not vote for anyone for office, but provided a symbolic place for people to express their discontent with the status quo. ” He said.
Hong Kong CEO Carrie Lam, left, was chosen by a group of just 1,200 to be the territory’s leader. All candidates for the position must be approved by Beijing. [File: Jayne Russell/AFP]
Pro-democracy candidates have long had the odds against it, as only part of Hong Kong’s legislature is elected by popular vote. The chief executive, Hong Kong’s highest leader, is also selected by a committee of just 1,200 people and the choice is limited only to those approved by Beijing.
In recent weeks, authorities have redoubled their pledges of allegiance to the state and implemented national security lessons for all schoolchildren, starting at the primary level.
In late January, Hong Kong’s 180,000 officials were given one month to sign an oath of allegiance to Hong Kong, while an upcoming bill before the legislature would bar lawmakers and district councilors from participating in elections during five years if they violate the city’s mini-constitution or do not duly swear their oath of allegiance.
“If the requirement is introduced that anyone who stands for election at any level in Hong Kong must support the position that Hong Kong is an inalienable part of the People’s Republic of China, then the CCP’s control over Hong Kong will be tightened. even more, “said Bonnie Glaser, director of the People’s Republic of China. China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Only pro-Beijing candidates will be able to run for public office.”
Fight against poverty
Despite the riots in Hong Kong, one of the NPC’s main goals in China will be to celebrate the country’s so-called “victory over extreme poverty”, announced by President Xi Jinping last week.
While it is a long-term goal of the Communist Party of China, Xi’s “victory” comes with added political weight after China’s difficult year fighting COVID-19 and international hostility over its policies toward Hong Kong and the Muslim minorities in western China. Relations with the United States also remain unstable even with the departure of Donald Trump and the election of Joe Biden as the new president.
“Xi set this as a goal and therefore must and has ‘achieved’ it, although the basic concept that poverty, a relative concept, can be eradicated, lacks intellectual foundation,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London.
Souvenirs for sale before the NPC in Beijing, including a mug with a portrait of Xi Jinping, who declared his “victory” over extreme poverty. [Tingshu Wang/Reuters]
“Economic performance or the ability to provide a ‘better tomorrow’ to the majority of Chinese in exchange for their embrace and support of the Party’s monopolizing power has been in place since after the 1989 Beijing Massacre,” he said, referring to the 1989 crackdown in Tiananmen. Square.
The two sessions will also adopt China’s fourteenth five-year plan, which outlines the country’s economic and social goals through 2025.
The plan is also expected to detail how China plans to reach peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, a goal Xi announced last fall that aims to transform China’s status as the largest consumer and producer of coal. of the world.
Experts are also waiting to see if China will set an official GDP growth target after eliminating it last year for the first time while dealing with the economic fallout from COVID-19. In 2020, the country’s economy expanded by just 2.3 percent.
With China’s success story so closely tied to its astronomical growth in past decades, moving away from official growth targets could be a watershed move.
“Faced with the inevitability of slower GDP growth, the CCP has been trying to move from quantitative measures of performance legitimacy to qualitative measures, such as addressing income inequality and environmental pollution, for quite some time,” Bowie said. .
“I think the Party saw COVID-19 as an opportunity to accelerate this transition. If China forgoes announcing GDP targets again this year, it will be a sign of the regime’s confidence that its legitimacy no longer depends on reaching astronomical growth targets. “
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