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The G7 group of leading nations called on Friday for the “swift” withdrawal of Eritrean troops from the conflict-affected northern Tigray region of Ethiopia, as the International Crisis Group (ICG) warned of a prolonged stalemate.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced last week that Eritrean forces would leave the region, just three days after finally acknowledging their presence amid growing reports of massacres and widespread sexual violence.
“We welcome the recent announcement by (Ethiopian) Prime Minister Abiy that Eritrean forces will withdraw from Tigray,” the G7 foreign ministers said in a statement issued in Berlin.
“This process must be fast, unconditional and verifiable.”
Nobel Peace Prize winner Abiy sent troops to Tigray in November to detain and disarm the leaders of the once dominant regional ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
He said the move came in response to TPLF orchestrated attacks on federal army camps.
Abiy declared victory within weeks, but fighting has recently continued in central and southern Tigray, conflict prevention group ICG said on Friday in a briefing published nearly five months after the first shots were fired.
– Eritrean presence –
Addis Ababa and Asmara have long denied that Eritreans were active in Tigray, contradicting testimony from residents, human rights groups, humanitarian workers, diplomats and even some Ethiopian civil and military officials.
Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch (HRW) have accused Eritrean troops of massacring hundreds of people in the town of Axum in Tigray in November.
AFP has separately documented a massacre allegedly carried out by Eritrean troops in the city of Dengolat, also in November.
Tigray’s interim leader Mulu Nega told AFP this week that the withdrawal was “a process” and would not happen immediately.
Residents of several cities and towns in Tigray told AFP this week that Eritreans appeared to have increased their presence in some areas.
At least four trucks loaded with Eritrean soldiers have arrived in the town of Edaga Hamus since last weekend, said a resident who asked not to be identified for security reasons.
“Since Edaga Hamus returned to Edaga Hamus, I have not been able to leave my house for fear of being killed if they find me on the street,” said the resident.
“However, I may soon have to leave my home in search of food for myself, my wife and my two children, or else we will all starve.”
More Eritrean troops also recently arrived in Senkata city, although it was unclear if they would stay, said a resident who also spoke on condition of anonymity.
“There is anxiety that Eritrean soldiers are preparing a full-scale confrontation,” the resident said.
When asked about the status of Eritrea’s withdrawal, Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel told AFP by email this week that Abiy’s remarks were “unequivocal and unequivocal”.
– ‘entrenched’ resistance –
In its briefing on Friday, the ICG warned that the fighting runs the risk of dragging on for months and even years, with both sides seeing a military “coup de grace” that seems unrealistic.
The number of fighters loyal to the TPLF is likely increasing due to growing anger over the atrocities, he said.
Most of the TPLF leaders continue to flee and the ICG noted that none were captured or killed in February or March.
Pro-TPLF fighters have regrouped under the Tigray Defense Forces, an armed movement “led by ousted Tigrayan leaders and commanded by high-ranking former military officers,” ICG said.
The resistance is “entrenched” and has popular support from Tigrayans angered by the mass killings and rapes, including by soldiers from Eritrea, the staunch enemy of the TPLF, ICG said.
Mulu, who was appointed by Abiy, previously acknowledged that the Tigrayan people have “mixed feelings” about his administration’s presence in the region.
However, he and other officials have said that assumptions that the TPLF enjoys broad popular support are flawed and have downplayed its potential to mount an effective insurgency.
– Massacres –
Access restrictions for humanitarian workers, researchers and journalists have made it difficult to determine the death toll from the fighting so far.
But countless reports have emerged of massacres, extrajudicial killings and sexual violence.
The Abiy government has said it is committed to investigating such crimes.
On Thursday, researchers at the University of Ghent in Belgium published an article saying they had identified 1,942 civilian casualties, of whom only three percent died in bombings and airstrikes.
They also included a list of 151 “massacres” in which at least five unarmed civilians were killed.
The researchers’ findings could not be independently verified.
ICG said in its briefing that peace talks appear unlikely in the immediate term, but called on the United States, the EU and the African Union to push for a cessation of hostilities and greater humanitarian access.
