Foreign policy challenges for Biden

It was the most followed election in American history. According to some foreign policy experts, the past four years have witnessed a remarkable shift in US policies with the outside world under “America First”, which in turn has isolated America. With the unconventional interaction with friends and enemies during the Trump regime, it becomes necessary to determine the expected changes when Joe Biden takes office.

Biden, who was part of the Obama team, has expressed his desire to get America back in the lead after losing his way in the quest for “Make America Great Again.” By the end of President Obama’s term, a desire had developed to look inward with the belief that resources are best used for domestic purposes. Trump also decided to steer the United States away from endless wars around the world. However, much of his international relations efforts resulted in antagonizing almost everyone.

A recent poll showed that contrary to common belief, the American public is not overly opposed to the idea of ​​American involvement in issues around the world, even more so when everyone looks to the United States for guidance. The Trump regime saw a worsening of ties with NATO, the exit from the treaty with Iran, problems with the WHO, uncertain climate problems, etc., so it is necessary to take a fresh look at everything and especially the allies. Although possible Republican control of the Senate may restrict Biden, one can expect a series of executive orders to get things back on track.

Climate crisis

This issue will require immediate attention as Trump withdrew from the Paris agreement, rendering this effort aimless. Biden has expressed seriousness about rejoining the Paris agreement and motivating other nations to push forward on their commitments to maintain the right climate.

Trump had also reversed some measures taken by the Obama administration to control the climate and called them measures that end employment. Therefore, the new administration must balance job creation and limit carbon pollution, especially from power plants. A decision will also be made regarding the revoked moratorium on the coal lease.

World Health Organization

This problem has gained prominence due to the pandemic. Trump withdrew from the WHO after accusing it of working under Chinese influence, which resulted in a loss of funds for the WHO, although China and some European nations promised more to cover the deficit.
The withdrawal of the WHO will also result in problems for the United States, as it will have less influence in global affairs. Health priorities around the world where the US has invested will also suffer. WHO helps countries tackle their health problems so that they do not become global problems. Many new competing health groups can emerge if WHO’s authority as the custodian of the global health authority is diluted.

Biden has indicated many times that returning to WHO is his priority. In addition, there should be some systems and protocols on pandemic management and control of Chinese influence.

China Factor

America’s relationship with China has been fraught with tension and has been complicated. The past four years have seen a deterioration in relations with China on issues of climate change, North Korea’s nuclear program, and Covid-19.

During his campaign, Trump blamed China for the Covid-19 disaster in hopes that it would reduce pressure on his administration regarding handling of the pandemic. His departure from the WHO citing Chinese influence further complicated matters.

According to many experts, Biden favors a conciliatory approach to China. There is also the view that it is necessary to work with China on the climate, Covid and North Korea. Biden recently said in a media interaction that “we want China to grow,” and many of his advisers also think that involving China is the only way to make it adhere to international standards. Biden favors the deal with China by creating a united front of US allies, which together would make up more than half of the world economy.

Iran

Biden has expressed his intention to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal if Iran guarantees compliance with the pact. It won’t be an easy task for Biden, as a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since Trump withdrew from the deal. Iran is now a changed country when it comes to foreign policy, and the new administration will find it more under Russian and Chinese influence compared to four years ago.

China is building and equipping Iran’s port at Chabahar, which is critical to an oil pipeline project that may challenge efforts to ban Iran’s exports. China has also made $ 400 billion in investments to improve Iran’s oil sector, which would significantly boost its economy, according to reports.

After the UN’s 10-year arms embargo on Iran was lifted in the latter part of 2020, a military component has also entered the Iran-Russia relationship. Media reports indicated a naval exercise in 2019 in the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, in which Russia, China and Iran participated.

Therefore, it seems difficult for the new American administration to alienate Iran from Russian and Chinese influence. There must be new negotiations and strong reasons would be needed for Iran to come.

Afghanistan

This has been a complicated case for American political advisers since the Obama era. During his time in Iraq, the military leadership attempted to implement counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. This involved building relationships with the local population and focusing on development work. This approach had its critics, but it worked well in Iraq.

According to author James Mann, when Obama announced an increase in troop strength in Afghanistan, the first senior official to dissent was Joe Biden. He felt that counterterrorism is a better option than counterinsurgency. Biden felt that more troops would mean more casualties. Therefore, it would translate into a decrease in public support and also within the Democrats.

The Trump administration preferred to deal directly with the Taliban, which ultimately led to troop withdrawals and intra-Afghan negotiations. Some policy experts believe that the Biden administration will have to opt for a broad-based intra-Afghan policy coupled with careful implementation and monitoring of past deals with the Taliban. As there are media reports that Michèle Flournoy may be the next Defense Secretary, it can be assumed that the counterinsurgency strategy will get a boost.

The new administration would require a new approach to invigorate foreign policy with renewed alliances with allies. Its success in repairing strained relations is important not only to the United States but also to the entire world order.

(The author is a Toronto-based finance professional)

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