Foreign meddling as a source of state fragility in Ethiopia – Middle East Monitor

State fragility is a multidimensional concept that is often characterized by deficiencies in one or more areas of the central functions of the state: legitimacy, authority (competing aspirants to power) and capacity (weak ability to provide basic government functions). State fragility poses a serious problem for many developing countries, leading to human flight and economic decline. Since 2015, for example, only five countries (Afghanistan, Somalia, South Sudan and Syria) have generated more than 60% of the 15 million refugees.

In many cases, the fragility of the state is not due only to internal political tensions, but to the result of foreign intrusion into the affairs of countries. External intervention includes, but is not limited to, external support for factions opposed to the government, covert operations by foreign forces to destabilize the government, as well as the influence of foreign governments on external actors such as multilateral agencies to suspend budget support, foreign aid and other funds.

Negotiations have been held between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to reach a fair and balanced agreement that preserves the water rights of the three countries. This includes agreements on mechanisms to resolve disputes and ways to coordinate and exchange information on the operation of water dams in each country. The parties must depoliticize their argument and use reliable, science-based solutions that do not harm the interests of either party.

While these negotiations are ongoing, Egypt has resorted to clandestine measures to achieve its narrow objectives. One is to destabilize the Ethiopian regime, for example, by providing financial and military support to political opponents, arming and training militants from Benishangul-Gumuz (the area where the dam is located) to carry out incidents of mass violence to create general instability. in the region. There is also growing evidence that Egypt has also encouraged the Sudanese government’s takeover of several Ethiopian cities on the border (they made a statement that they support Sudan in its border conflict with Ethiopia). All this is because Ethiopia decided to exercise its legal right to build a dam within its national borders. This right is compatible with national and international legislation. Despite the fact that 85% of the Nile River’s water originates from Ethiopia, nearly all consumption and use occurs downstream in Egypt and Sudan.

In many cases, Egypt has interrupted negotiations by creating abnormal delays, ignoring agreed procedures and refusing to consider adverse proposals or interests. These are actions that amount to violations of good faith and most likely an abuse of the rights of states.

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International law obliges States to negotiate in good faith disputes that arise in relation to the use and protection of shared natural resources. The essential nature of the obligation is that the parties strive to reach an agreement that reconciles their competing use rights. Good faith negotiations also include not making totally selfish legal arguments that undermine the rights of other parties and not resorting to extra-legal measures to further your goals.

In negotiations, it is critical to realize that a successful negotiation is a joint effort. The use of direct or indirect pressure on other parties will harden positions and deflect any effort to reach an agreement.

The Egyptian meddling in Ethiopia’s internal affairs to achieve its narrow goals at the dam is likely to have serious ramifications beyond the existing dispute. First, beyond their potential benefit, the dams problem is personal to most Ethiopians. Millions of citizens contributed their meager income to the construction of the dam. Any effort by other nations to undermine the completion and use of the dam would be treated as an act of war by most of the people.

Second, Egypt and Ethiopia are important countries in the region with centuries of history and civilization. His actions set a precedent in the region. It sends the message that if you don’t get your way through the negotiation, you can intimidate your negotiating partner into submitting.

Third, such meddling will not achieve its objectives. Given Ethiopia’s anti-colonial past and resistance to foreign aggression, it is likely to toughen the country’s position on the dam. This may be the most accommodating Ethiopian government willing to settle disputes through negotiation. Future governments are likely to take a hard line stance and resist any future negotiations that compromise their autonomy in the dam.

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Fourth, despite their long history and civilization, both countries face serious development challenges: high levels of poverty, income inequality, poor governance and political instability. They are far behind in providing their citizens with opportunities to fulfill their aspirations for a better life. The Fund for Peace, which prepares the State Fragility Index for 178 countries, ranks Egypt as the 35th most fragile state behind Angola and Mauritania (Ethiopia ranked 21st) for 2020. The assessment is based on social cohesion , economic indicators (economic decline, income inequality, flight of people and brain drain), political indicators (human rights, rule of law, state legitimacy and public services) and social factors such as demographic pressures, refugees and internally displaced persons and external intervention . Such foreign meddling is not without a cost to Egypt, which desperately needs these resources to build schools, infrastructure and health care for its people.

Political observers from the Middle East suggest that such foreign meddling is aimed at diverting attention from critical issues facing the country, such as poor governance, democracy and human rights, and helping it gain some political legitimacy by appearing as an advocate. of the national interest.

Ultimately, such actions poison the well of Egypt-Ethiopia relations and create a sense of hostility between the two peoples who have lived in peace for generations. Most people think that these actions do not reflect the will of the Egyptian people and are only an act of a rogue regime that is out of touch.

It’s time to stop the foreign meddling and get back to work to achieve a mutually satisfactory solution through compromise, even if it means resigning from strongly held positions and a willingness to meet the other party halfway. Any attempt to destabilize your bargaining partner to achieve your goals, or insist on your partner’s total capitulation, is bad policy and will not work.

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The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.