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By Kate Abnett
BRUSSELS, Dec 9 (Reuters) – The European Union wants to reach an agreement this week on a new target to reduce greenhouse gases, but the plan has become embroiled in a budget dispute that threatens to block its climate ambition.
Days before the EU proclaims its new target at a world summit, the 27 national leaders will meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to reach an agreement on reducing emissions over the next decade by at least 55% from levels. 1990.
The current goal for 2030 is a 40% reduction in emissions.
This is where things are.
WHY THE RUSH?
The EU wants a deal this week. On December 12, the United Nations hosts a world summit, where world leaders will present higher climate goals. Brussels does not want to present itself empty-handed.
Doing so would damage its status as a global climate leader and risk being overtaken by China and the incoming US administration, who are working on tougher goals.
Failure to reach an agreement this week would likely also mean that the EU breaks its promise to present a new emission reduction pledge this year under the 2015 Paris Agreement, another potential blow to the bloc’s prestige.
BUDGET WRANGLE
Sources say the EU’s ability to reach a deal this week hinges on a battle over its budget for 2021-2017: a 1.8 trillion euro ($ 2.18 trillion) package that includes a fund of COVID-19 recovery.
Poland and Hungary, both under EU scrutiny for media and judicial independence, are blocking the budget because they oppose making money conditional on respect for the rule of law.
Climate and budget issues are related. The EU has said that 30% of its budget will be spent helping countries reduce emissions. If the currency dispute is resolved, diplomats say a climate deal is likely to be reached.
TERMS
Budgeting aside, negotiations on the climate deal boil down to the “enabling framework”, the EU jargon for the conditions attached to the goal.
All EU leaders must support the climate agreement. The good news, EU officials say, is that no country opposes the “at least 55%” target.
Rather, the challenge is to win over the eastern states with coal-dependent energy sectors and energy-intensive industries such as Poland and the Czech Republic. They want clearer assurances of EU support to help them decarbonize.
WHY 55%?
The European Commission says cuts of “at least 55%” are needed this decade to have a realistic shot at the EU’s commitment to net zero emissions by 2050.
The net zero target, if followed globally, would limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times and avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change.
There is not much room for maneuver. Average global temperatures have already risen by more than 1 degree, a change that helps fuel fierce wildfires, stronger hurricanes and more frequent and intense heat waves.
The European Parliament, which must approve the EU target, wants a steeper 60% reduction in emissions by 2030. Environmental activists want more, arguing that, as a major historical producer of emissions warming the planet, the EU should shrink faster than other regions.
JUST THE BEGINNING
Once the goal is agreed, real-world work begins.
The EU is already developing a series of policies to transform its economy to pollute less.
According to EU estimates, the new target will require additional investments in the energy sector of € 350 billion ($ 425 billion) a year this decade. Policy proposals planned for next summer will raise carbon costs for airlines, tighten emission limits for cars, and increase renewable energy capacity. ($ 1 = 0.8239 euros) (Information by Kate Abnett; Editing by Philip Blenkinsop and Andrew Cawthorne)
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