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Digital contact tracing apps can save lives and help control the coronavirus epidemic even with a small uptake of users, researchers from the University of Oxford and Google have said.
The latest study models the potential contribution of Exposure Notification Systems, a system that has been adopted by Google and Apple for implementation on their respective mobile operating systems.
The team analyzed infections, hospitalizations and deaths in the three largest counties in Washington state: King, Pierce and Snohomish.
They found that the more people use exposure notification systems, the greater the reduction in Covid-19 transmissions and the greater the opportunity to ease restrictive quarantine measures.
In addition, they said that “all levels” of the levels of receipt of exposure notifications in the UK and the US have the potential to “significantly reduce the number of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths across the population” .
Professor Christophe Fraser, co-lead author, said: “We estimate that in Washington State, a well-staffed manual contact tracing workforce combined with 15% adoption of an exposure reporting system could reduce infections in 15% and deaths by 11 percent. “
The team used Oxford’s OpenABM-Covid19 epidemiological model with the latest real-world data from Washington state on both the epidemic and patterns of human mobility and social interactions.
They included different scenarios and results that allow policy makers to consider the gradual reopening and easing of Covid-19 restrictions, thus allowing as many people as possible to return to their most normal activities while maintaining control of the epidemic. .
Dr David Bonsall, scientific advisor to the UK government’s Test & Trace program, said: “Covid-19 infects others before we develop symptoms, and some people transmit with only mild symptoms or without any symptoms.
“Roadblocks and travel restrictions are bad for society, so we need smarter and more efficient systems that notify only those at risk and keep the rest of us moving freely.
“Digital exposure notification systems that preserve privacy are an important part of the global response to this pandemic. They will save more lives and reduce more and more infections as people gain confidence in the systems. “
Google’s research team added that specific or staged reopening strategies, such as identifying specific occupation sectors or schools, should be considered and they hope the simulations will help public health authorities strike a balance between protecting people from infection and reduce the social and economic impact of prolonged or repeated blockages.
The research clashes somewhat with claims by a University College London team last month that found that contact tracing apps are of limited effectiveness when not combined with a suite of other measures designed to slow the spread of the virus.
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