Ethiopia’s turbulent history provides clues as to why an all-out civil war is possible

11/10/2020 Ethiopia



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The Ethiopian government, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is carrying out a military offensive in Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost state. A six-month state of emergency has been declared in the region. Dozens of victims have been reported amid fears that nine million people are at risk of being displaced.

The offensive follows accusations by the Ahmed government that forces loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the ruling party in Tigray, attacked a military base. Since then, there have been reports of a series of airstrikes in Tigray’s capital, Mekelle.

There have been mounting political tensions in the country. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front dominated the country’s army and government before Ahmed took office in 2018. Its subsequent formation of a new Prosperity Party saw members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front withdrawn from positions. critics.

Despite comprising only 6% of Ethiopia’s population, Tigrayans have historically held a significant proportion of federal power since they led the way to victory during the 1974-1991 Civil War. They have recently protested their marginalization and alienation. by the Ahmed administration.

Tensions peaked when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front criticized Ahmed’s decision to postpone the August 2020 national elections indefinitely due to COVID-19. In an act of defiance, the Tigrayan leaders withdrew their federal representatives from Addis Ababa and held their own elections.

The rhetoric intensified, as Ahmed condemned the elections as “illegitimate”, while the Tigray media called the government a “personalist dictatorship.”

As historians of popular conflict and insurgency, including the Ethiopian Civil War, we maintain that this is not a trivial political dispute. Ethiopia is a trans-ethnic federation, which means that it is a centralized state made up of a network of ethnically-based decentralized administrations. These are in regular competition for influence.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front wants to prevent Ahmed from replacing the federal agreement with a unitary government, in which they would not play a critical role.

There is a real possibility that an all-out civil war will start and spread to the rest of the country. History shows that there is widespread mobilization capacity within the Tigrayan community. The state of Tigray is also on Ethiopia’s border with Eritrea, so its army has considerable experience in conflict. It is estimated that the paramilitary force and the local militia of the Front number some 250,000 troops.

Furthermore, there have been recent violent dissensions among other ethnic groups in Ethiopia. This has included the Oromos, the Prime Minister’s own ethnic group. Friction has also continued along the border with Eritrea.

If Tigray continues to interact with government forces, it could encourage other dissident groups to do the same and potentially draw neighboring states into the conflict.

There have been international calls for tension reduction and peaceful resolution. But Ahmed has promised to continue military and political action.

The threat of repeated history looms over everything.

Legacy of the civil war

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front has an important history of popular mobilization. The state of Tigrayan has also maintained its own well-trained militia since the end of the Civil War in 1991. It also has a history of fighting for democracy and representation.

When Emperor Haile Selassie was deposed by the army in 1974, the Soviet-backed military junta, the Derg, imposed a repressive ruling regime. In Tigray, extraordinary resistance emerged in the form of a highly organized and politically mature popular revolution.

Tens of thousands of men, women and students mobilized for combat. Schools and other educational centers were established in protected areas and unprecedented land reforms were introduced throughout the region. This meant that the movement had its roots in the needs of the people.

When the populist revolution began to take hold, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front formed a coalition with other liberation groups called the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front. Victory against Derg was secured in 1991.

The front was a progressive alliance that united a deeply divided country into one nation. This must be understood in the context of a long history of ethnic disputes that caused enormous disruption and loss of life.

A fundamental principle of the new federal state established in the 1995 constitution was Article 39, which stipulated that all regions had the right to self-determination and, if they wished, to peaceful secession.