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Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced on Sunday that government forces were “in full control” of Mekelle, the regional capital of Tigray province in northern Ethiopia.
He claimed that the military had entered the city in the “last phase” of the conflict with the Tigray Popular Liberation Front (TPLF). Military operations in the Tigray region had ceased, he said, although federal forces “would continue their task of apprehending the TPLF criminals and bringing them to court.”
The neighboring province of Amhara has dispatched its uniformed “special forces” to support the armed forces and maintain security, while Amhara civil servants have also arrived to take over the management of some of the western towns and cities of Tigray. Both movements will fuel ethnic tensions.
The army’s takeover of Mekelle follows the offensive that began after Abiy’s ultimatum for dissident local leaders to surrender expired on Wednesday night.
Abiy had called on the leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the local ruling party, to surrender to prevent the assault on the city. He threatened the 500,000 citizens of Mekelle saying: “We call on the people of Mekelle and its surroundings to disarm, stay at home and stay away from military targets. [and] to do their part in reducing the damage caused by a handful of criminal elements ”. He urged them to support the federal government against the TPLF “to bring this treacherous group to justice.”
Military officials had previously warned that “there would be no mercy” if Mekelle residents did not distance themselves from the TPLF and leave while they could. That action directed against civilians is a violation of international law, prompting Laetitia Bader of Human Rights Watch to warn: “Treating an entire city as a military target not just [be] illegal, it could also be considered a form of collective punishment. “
TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael challenged Abiy’s ultimatum, declaring that his people were “ready to die” defending their homeland and their right to self-determination and that “their brutality can only add [to] our determination to fight these invaders to the end. “
Abiy launched the military offensive in Tigray, home to around six million people, on November 4, claiming that the TPLF had started it by invading army bases and massacring non-Tigray officers and its purpose was to restore “order. constitutional law and the rule of law. “
The parliament declared the Tigray regional government illegal and voted to dissolve it. Tigray’s leadership was accused of having “violated the constitution and endangered the constitutional system” by holding regional elections in September after Abiy postponed the elections promised for this year, apparently due to the pandemic, while protests against the government and opposition. The Tigrayan elections came about in the wake of bitter disputes between the federal government and the TPLF that it says has been sidelined since Abiy became prime minister in February 2018.
Parliament said a new interim administration would hold elections and “implement the decisions passed by the federal government.” He declared that the TPLF should be branded a terrorist group after blaming it for the massacre of the Amhara ethnic group in Oromia on 2 November.
Abiy is determined to ensure the removal of the TPLF leadership and to establish a new leadership subordinate to the federal government as part of his broader plan to centralize his authority at the expense of decentralized regions, amid growing ethnic tensions that threaten to tear Ethiopia apart.
There were reports of clashes between Tigrayan and federal forces in various locations in the province. While it is believed that there have been many casualties on both sides, there is little reliable information on what is happening as the federal government in Addis Adaba cut phone and internet lines to Tigray, arrested journalists and deported the Senior Ethiopia Crisis Analyst Group. William Davison on November 21 and prevented people from reaching the province.
In addition to the military clashes, hostilities have spread to the civilian population, with ethnic violence between the Tigrayans and the Amhara, Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group. According to an investigation by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, a group of Tigray youths with the complicity of local security forces had killed at least 600 civilians from the Amhara and Wolkait ethnic groups in Mai Kadra two weeks ago. Tigrayan leaders have denied it. The Tigrayan refugees have reported atrocities committed by the Amhara militia fighting alongside federal forces.
Hundreds, possibly thousands, have died in the conflict so far, with up to a million people displaced when civilians fled the fighting. About 43,000 from western Tigray, around the cities of Humera and Kansha, have fled to neighboring Sudan. The Kassala region is one of the most impoverished regions in Sudan that is struggling to cope with the influx of refugees and is in urgent need of assistance. Ethiopian troops and paramilitaries are now reportedly preventing Tigrayans from reaching or crossing the border.
According to the UN, the shortage has become “very critical” in the Tigray region, with the cash and fuel needed to run the diesel generators running low. A report released last week said that food for nearly 100,000 Eritrean refugees living in neighboring Tigray would run out within a week and more than 600,000 people who depend on monthly food rations have not received it this month. Ethiopia has around 1.7 million refugees and internally displaced persons living in camps.
The worst locust swarm to hit Ethiopia in 25 years is exacerbating the crisis. Last year, locusts destroyed 350,000 tonnes of grain and 3 million acres of pasture, causing 1 million people across the country to need emergency food assistance. This year’s damage is expected to be worse, given recent heavy rains.
According to an internal United Nations (UN) document seen by Reuters, the conflict in Tigray halted efforts to combat locust swarms while Tigrayans mobilized for war. According to a recent report by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), around 600,000 Tigrayans depend on food assistance, while another million people receive other forms of support, all of which are now interrupted as banks are closed and roads are blocked.
Abiy has rejected all calls from the UN, the European Union, the African Union and international agencies to negotiate with the TPLF, claiming that the military operation was a “law enforcement operation” with the aim of eliminating the rebel leaders. “traitors” and restore central authority in accordance with Ethiopia’s decentralized constitutional system. He insisted, “A fundamental element of the international legal order is the principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of sovereign states … We respectfully urge the international community to refrain from any unwanted and illegal act of interference.”
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who holds the presidency of the African Union, sent three high-level envoys to Ethiopia, but the federal government in Addis Ababa refused to allow them to meet with the TPLF leadership.
UN efforts to organize mediation appear to have been hampered by Washington, which has long viewed Ethiopia as a key ally and proxy in the Horn of Africa.
The desperate situation Ethiopia faces is linked to the escalating crisis of world capitalism and the resulting rivalry between the great powers that has led in recent decades to the fragmentation and disintegration of a region that includes Ethiopia, Sudan, Sudan. from the South, Somalia and Djibouti. The Horn is a scene of intense regional rivalry and great power for control of oil reserves and mineral resources in neighboring countries, and the maritime route through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait through which much of the oil from Europe, with the United States and Europe engaged in a fierce fight with China.
The Trump administration played a key role in bringing Abiy to power in 2018 as part of its efforts to loosen the country’s dependence on Chinese investment begun under the TPLF-dominated government, open up the state economy to global corporations and banks, and counteract the spread of China’s influence across the continent.
Tibor Nagy, the US Undersecretary for African Affairs, expressed his support for Abiy saying, “This is not two sovereign states fighting. This is a faction of the government that leads a region that has decided to launch hostilities against the central government. “
