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As 2020 draws to a close, the terrible cost of the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region is coming into sharper focus. Human costs continue to rise; The United Nations estimates that 1.3 million people are in need of emergency assistance as a result of the conflict, and more than 50,000 people have fled to neighboring Sudan. Eritrean refugees who had fled to Ethiopia have reportedly been attacked, in some cases forcibly repatriated. UN agencies are still unable to access some areas with humanitarian aid. And despite the federal government’s claim that the military operation ended in late November, it is clear that some fighting continues. The total number of civilians killed is unknown. The cost of regional stability will only become apparent over time, but it is already clear that Sudan’s fragile transition is facing new dangers as a result of the conflict in Ethiopia.
Prime Minister Abiy’s credibility is also among the losses. His claims in late November that not a single civilian was killed in the military assault on Tigray were contradicted by desperate testimony that emerged despite the state’s attempt to impose a total communications blackout across the region. Extensive and alarming evidence contradicts Abiy’s repeated denials of the involvement of Eritrean forces on Ethiopian territory. Journalists are being beaten and harassed, presumably for reporting the truth and tarnishing the optimistic rhetoric of the leaders in Addis Ababa.
This loss of credibility may seem insignificant compared to the number of dead, injured and displaced, but it is nonetheless serious. Ethiopia had long played an important stabilizing role in the region and had become a leading voice on behalf of the continent as a whole in important global debates. Around the world, leaders embraced the vision of a stable, prosperous, inclusive and accountable Ethiopia, a state strong enough to uphold African interests and shared global norms. But now the international community has reason to doubt the veracity of Abiy’s words and to question his intentions, which is not a solid basis for fruitful partnerships. The cost, calculated in missed opportunities, could be staggering.
Blog posts represent the views of CFR members and staff and not those of CFR, which does not take institutional positions.
