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The international community is intensifying its scrutiny of former Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni, less than a week after he won his sixth presidential term.
Museveni, who has ruled Uganda since 1986, was declared the winner of last Thursday’s poll with 59% of the vote against 35% for opposition leader Bobi Wine.
Although Museveni called the elections the “most cheat-free” in Ugandan history, the run-up to the elections was marred by violent protests and a blackout on social media and the internet.
Mixed reactions
The US embassy in Uganda issued a statement earlier this week saying the elections were tainted by harassment of opposition candidates and repression of the media and rights defenders.
He noted “a disturbing trend in the course of Uganda’s democracy.”
On Monday, Ugandan authorities accused US Ambassador Natalie E. Brown of trying to undermine the election after she tried to visit opposition candidate Bobi Wine while he was under house arrest.
Musician-turned-opposition politician Bobi Wine is currently under house arrest following his defeat in the Ugandan presidential elections.
A statement from the US State Department fell short of congratulating Museveni on his victory and instead drew a tougher line on the conduct of the Ugandan authorities during the electoral process.
“We are deeply concerned about the numerous credible reports of violence by the security forces during the pre-election period and the electoral irregularities during the elections,” spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in the statement. “We reiterate our intention to take action against those responsible for undermining democracy and human rights in Uganda.”
The UK reaction, by contrast, was less critical. He welcomed the “relatively smooth passage” of the elections and acknowledged Museveni’s victory.
“We call on all parties, including the security services, but also all political movements in Uganda, to act with restraint to ensure the peaceful resolution of disputes,” British Minister for Africa James Duddridge said in a statement.
“As a long-time partner, we urge Uganda to continue to strive to fulfill its own international human rights commitments.”
The director of the Africa Program at Chatham House, Alex Vines, said that the various reactions are indicative of how different governments plan to approach relations with Uganda.
“The United States has issued a strong statement … I think it is an early sign that we will see much clearer cutoffs around [President-elect Joe] Biden’s activities in Africa, “he told DW.
“Compare that to the UK, which has basically given a signal that the elections had run into trouble, but Ugandans should be non-violent and resolve their differences with each other – that’s a very different approach than the former colonial power.” .
The more traditional messages of congratulations came from neighboring states like Tanzania.
Tanzanian President John Magufuli was quick to congratulate Museveni
“Congratulations to the Honorable Yoweri Kaguta Museveni on being declared the winner of the presidency,” President John Magufuli tweeted. “Tanzania will develop our friendship and brotherhood for the benefit of the broader interests of the people.”
The Kenyan State House posted a similar message on Facebook and Twitter congratulating Museveni. However, the message was quickly removed on Monday, after Facebook flagged it for containing misinformation.
Some say the congratulatory message was removed to save face. Others interpret the removal as President Uhuru Kenyatta retracting his good wishes for Museveni after facing questions about the integrity of Uganda’s election.
The mixed reactions are not surprising, said Arthur Bainomugisha, director of the Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment, an independent think tank on public policy.
“It is always like this because different countries have their own perceptions [of the election]”Bainomugisha told DW from Kampala.
“The reactions of the international community should be used to help improve our systems, to improve our political institutions … We may not have the best quality democracy, but we are building it.”
No observation missions in sight
International observer missions were notably absent from last week’s elections after the Ugandan authorities failed to accredit the missions or implement the recommendations of previous missions.
Before the elections, a coalition representing hundreds of Ugandan civil society organizations said that of 1,900 applications for accreditation, the government only granted 10.
Uganda’s electoral commission also rejected the offer of monitors from the European Union despite the fact that the EU had previously observed three elections between 2006 and 2016.
The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, criticized the Ugandan elections in a statement issued shortly before election day.
Street blocking by security forces was common in the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 presidential elections
“The excessive use of force by the police and security agencies has seriously tarnished this electoral process,” Borrell said.
Vines, an expert on Africa, does not believe that the presence of international observers has necessarily affected the outcome of the elections. But it may have helped defuse the anxiety of the opposition, including Bobi Wine and his supporters.
“[Having] international observers [present] it could have meant that after the election results had been announced, there would have been internationals that provided more scrutiny, “Vines told DW.
The lack of international monitors has left only local journalists and the few international journalists who cover the elections holding the government to account, he said.
Uganda’s complicated relationship with the West
Since Museveni came to power in 1986, Western nations have maintained a relatively stable relationship with Uganda, which is highly dependent on international donations.
However, a new chapter in Ugandan-Western relations may be about to begin.
In recent months, the Museveni government has turned its scrutiny toward Western-funded democratic projects. Museveni has also dedicated himself to labeling opposition figures as “foreign agents.”
With an increasingly young and disgruntled opposition rejecting the long-term leader, western states will soon be less likely to tolerate Uganda’s hostile approach to governance and foreign policy.
“[Museveni staying on for six terms] it is going to be more and more a problem for several countries that will also argue that Museveni is no longer a guarantee of Ugandan stability, but increasingly represents a path to instability, “said Vines.
Opposition leader Bobi Wine has a strong support base among Ugandan youth
While the donor community continues to engage with Uganda, some observers argue that it is time to take a closer look at foreign aid in Uganda.
“We need to have a critical assessment of the conditions that are linked to foreign aid,” said Anna Reismann, national director for Uganda at Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, a German political foundation.
“The international community must have certain indicators on how they assess the current state of democracy and the rule of law in the country and be able to make the right decision about whether to continue with foreign air or perhaps retain it,” he said. DW.
As usual?
Still, Western nations are unlikely to be in a rush to sever ties with Uganda.
From a geopolitical point of view, Uganda is seen as a stabilizing force in a region plagued by war and conflict.
Museveni has also approached foreign policy in a way that makes Uganda valuable to the international community, particularly in terms of troops in the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which is currently supported by the United States.
Uganda has contributed a significant number of troops to AMISOM
“Museveni has tried to weave Uganda’s usefulness into Western politics to slightly dampen any criticism that may arise related to governance, human rights, democracy or internal affairs,” said Alex Vines of Chatham House.
However, Vines also believes that the US and the EU will continue to consider taking specific action against Uganda after the turbulent elections.
“Some of this will depend on how the Ugandan government treats Bobi Wine,” he said. “We will have to see how Museveni handles this in the future. That will be a key factor in determining how robust the US or the EU will be.”
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